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Gremio Prudente vs Francana

Brazil Brazil

Copa Paulista 2025 Estadio Paulo Constantino
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gremio Prudente play Francana in the Copa Paulista 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gremio Prudente averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Francana averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. In past meetings, Gremio Prudente won 1, Francana won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 13, 2025 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Gremio Prudente and 1.00 for Francana. This points to a Gremio Prudente double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Gremio Prudente
35%
Draws
26%
Francana
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gremio Prudente

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Gremio Prudente picked up more points recently compared to Francana.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Gremio Prudente Clean Sheet 23%
Francana Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Prudente Francana
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 7
Draws 16 9
Losses 7 14
Goals Scored 1.13 0.9
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Copa Paulista
Gremio Prudente vs Francana
3:0
Sep 7, 2025 Copa Paulista
Francana vs Gremio Prudente
1:1
Mar 4, 2009 Paulista A3
Gremio Prudente vs Francana
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Prudente Compare

Top Goalscorer Alan James
1 Goals
Assists Leader Santos Andrade D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Francana Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Prudente 40 / 100
Francana 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Prudente Francana

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gremio Prudente or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gremio Prudente attacking → ← attacking Francana

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gremio Prudente scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Francana let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Gremio Prudente went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Francana lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 30
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50