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Gremio Sorriso vs Nova Mutum EC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Campeonato Matogrossense 2022
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AI Match Summary

Nova Mutum EC in this Campeonato Matogrossense 2022 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nova Mutum EC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Gremio Sorriso
15%
Draws
59%
Nova Mutum EC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nova Mutum EC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Nova Mutum EC have won more games recently than Gremio Sorriso.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Gremio Sorriso Clean Sheet 20%
Nova Mutum EC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Sorriso Nova Mutum EC
Matches Played 31 38
Wins 7 17
Draws 10 10
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.26
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2022 Matogrossense
Gremio Sorriso vs Nova Mutum EC
0:1
Mar 13, 2021 Matogrossense
Gremio Sorriso vs Nova Mutum EC
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Sorriso 32 / 100
Nova Mutum EC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Sorriso Nova Mutum EC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gremio Sorriso scored in 55% of their last 31 outings.

Defensive concern: Nova Mutum EC conceded in 58% of 38 recent games.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Gremio Sorriso went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gremio Sorriso VS Nova Mutum EC
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio Sorriso

(Home)
10 May
Gremio Sorriso
4 : 0
Campo Novo
30 Apr
Sinop FC
3 : 0
Gremio Sorriso
26 Apr
Santa Cruz MT
0 : 0
Gremio Sorriso
19 Apr
Gremio Sorriso
0 : 1
Sorriso EC
08 Jun
Gremio Sorriso
1 : 3
Pocone
Page 1 of 7

Nova Mutum EC

(Away)
11 Feb
Operario VG
3 : 2
Nova Mutum EC
08 Feb
Nova Mutum EC
2 : 1
Mixto
05 Feb
Várzea Grande EC
1 : 3
Nova Mutum EC
31 Jan
Cuiaba
2 : 1
Nova Mutum EC
28 Jan
Nova Mutum EC
3 : 2
Chapada
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cuiaba 9 7 1 1 23:6 22
2 Luverdense 9 6 2 1 13:3 20
3 Sport Sinop 9 5 3 1 12:8 18
4 Academia 9 4 1 4 5:11 13
5 Dom Bosco 9 3 4 2 9:11 13
6 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 4 0 5 10:11 12
7 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 10:9 12
8 Operario VG 9 3 1 5 11:12 10
9 Gremio Sorriso 9 1 1 7 5:18 4
10 Acao 9 0 2 7 9:18 2
Promotion - Campeonato Matogrossense 2022 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Campeonato Matogrossense 2022 (Play Offs)