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Gremio Valparaiso vs Candango

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Brasiliense 2
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AI Match Summary

The Brasiliense 2 game between Gremio Valparaiso and Candango finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Gremio Valparaiso
30%
Draws
12%
Candango
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gremio Valparaiso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gremio Valparaiso come out ahead of Candango on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Gremio Valparaiso's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Brasiliense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Gremio Valparaiso Clean Sheet 16%
Candango Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Valparaiso Candango
Matches Played 18 30
Wins 6 2
Draws 2 5
Losses 10 23
Goals Scored 1.33 0.97
Goals Conceded 2.44 3.2
Expected Goals (xG) 3.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Brasiliense 2
Gremio Valparaiso vs Candango
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Brasiliense 2
Candango vs Gremio Valparaiso
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Valparaiso 84 / 100
Candango 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Valparaiso Candango

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Valparaiso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Candango has conceded goals in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Gremio Valparaiso stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Candango's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gremio Valparaiso VS Candango
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
2.5 Goals Conceded 4.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio Valparaiso

(Home)
20 Sept
Luziania
0 : 6
Gremio Valparaiso
12 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 2
Taguatinga
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
30 Aug
Planaltina
1 : 1
Gremio Valparaiso
11 Oct
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 5
ARUC
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Candango

(Away)
19 Sept
Candango
0 : 2
Legiao
13 Sept
Planaltina
2 : 0
Candango
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
29 Aug
Candango
0 : 4
Taguatinga
11 Oct
Brasilia FC (DF)
6 : 0
Candango
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Taguatinga 3 3 0 0 7:0 9
2 Gremio Valparaiso 4 1 2 1 8:4 5
3 Legiao 3 1 2 0 3:1 5
4 Planaltina 4 1 1 2 4:4 4
5 Canaa EC 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
6 Luziania 3 1 1 1 2:7 4
7 Candango 4 0 1 3 1:9 1
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