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Gremio Valparaiso vs Luziania - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Brasiliense 2 2024
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Batista M. D. d. S.
55' Event
da Costa da Silva B.

AI Match Summary

Gremio Valparaiso in this Brasiliense 2 2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gremio Valparaiso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Gremio Valparaiso
35%
Draws
26%
Luziania
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gremio Valparaiso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Gremio Valparaiso average 1.42 goals a game right now, well clear of Luziania's 1.28.
  • 39% — that's where the model lands on Gremio Valparaiso taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and Gremio Valparaiso have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Gremio Valparaiso Clean Sheet 19%
Luziania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gremio Valparaiso Luziania
Matches Played 19 29
Wins 6 6
Draws 3 6
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.42 1.28
Goals Conceded 2.47 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Brasiliense 2
Luziania vs Gremio Valparaiso
0:6
Sep 6, 2025 Brasiliense 2
Gremio Valparaiso vs Luziania
0:4
Sep 28, 2024 Brasiliense 2
Gremio Valparaiso vs Luziania
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gremio Valparaiso Compare

Top Goalscorer Batista M. D. d. S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader da Costa da Silva B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Luziania Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gremio Valparaiso 85 / 100
Luziania 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gremio Valparaiso Luziania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gremio Valparaiso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Luziania has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Gremio Valparaiso has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Luziania's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gremio Valparaiso VS Luziania
1.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gremio Valparaiso

(Home)
26 Sept
Legiao
3 : 3
Gremio Valparaiso
20 Sept
Luziania
0 : 6
Gremio Valparaiso
12 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
0 : 2
Taguatinga
06 Sept
Gremio Valparaiso
1 : 1
Candango
30 Aug
Planaltina
1 : 1
Gremio Valparaiso
Page 1 of 4

Luziania

(Away)
03 Oct
Taguatinga
2 : 0
Luziania
26 Sept
Canaa EC
2 : 1
Luziania
20 Sept
Luziania
0 : 6
Gremio Valparaiso
12 Sept
Legiao
0 : 0
Luziania
05 Sept
Luziania
2 : 1
Planaltina
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Taguatinga 7 5 2 0 22:2 17
2 Sobradinho 7 4 3 0 29:5 15
3 SESP Brasilia 7 4 2 1 10:2 14
4 Legiao 7 4 1 2 16:3 13
5 Luziania 7 3 0 4 17:8 9
6 Gremio Valparaiso 7 3 0 4 8:21 9
7 Riacho City 7 1 0 6 6:40 3
8 Botafogo DF 7 0 0 7 3:30 0
Promotion - Brasiliense 2 2024 (Play Offs)