Sport Picks
Match Events
22'
22'
Jensen M.
Assist: Lewis-Potter K.
26'
26'
Lewis-Potter K.
Assist: Nelson R.
43'
43'
Nelson R.
Assist: Carvalho F.
AI Match Summary
Brentford in this EFL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 0-5. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
32%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Grimsby lately — more wins on the board than Brentford.
- Model gives Brentford a 32% chance of winning this.
- Grimsby have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Brentford, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Brentford here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Grimsby Clean Sheet 10%
Brentford Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Grimsby | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 9 | 11 |
| Losses | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.89 | 1.9 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 28, 2025 EFL Cup
Grimsby vs Brentford
0:5
Mar 3, 2009 League Two
Grimsby vs Brentford
0:1
Aug 16, 2008 League Two
Brentford vs Grimsby
4:0
Mar 24, 2008 League Two
Grimsby vs Brentford
1:2
Dec 8, 2007 League Two
Brentford vs Grimsby
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Grimsby Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Brentford Compare
Top Goalscorer Jensen M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lewis-Potter K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Grimsby 26 / 100
Brentford 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Grimsby Brentford
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Brentford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Grimsby's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Grimsby went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Brentford let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Grimsby VS Brentford
1.63 Goals Scored 3.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Grimsby
(Home) 19 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0 Crawley Town
12 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0 Bristol Rovers
05 Sept
Cheltenham
2 : 2 Grimsby
01 Sept
Accrington
2 : 2 Grimsby
29 Aug
Grimsby
2 : 2 Fleetwood Town
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0 Crawley Town
12 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0 Bristol Rovers
29 Aug
Grimsby
2 : 2 Fleetwood Town
15 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 0 Exeter
08 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 3 Blackpool
Page 1 of 3
Brentford
(Away) 18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0 Chelsea
15 Sept
Reading
1 : 2 Brentford
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
05 Sept
Brentford
1 : 1 Sunderland
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1 Brentford
Page 1 of 6
15 Sept
Reading
1 : 2 Brentford
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2 Brentford
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1 Brentford
25 Aug
Birmingham
1 : 6 Brentford
08 Aug
Rennes
2 : 4 Brentford
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
