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Stadium Background

Grobina vs FK Liepaja

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Grobiņas pilsētas stadions, Grobina
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Aruna A.
Assist: Kluskins G.
26'
Rupeiks K.
46'
Sub
Sorokins V. In: Rodolphe E.
Out: Sorokins V.

AI Match Summary

Grobina in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Grobina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Grobina
35%
Draws
35%
FK Liepaja
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • FK Liepaja have won more games recently than Grobina.
  • 35% — that's where the model lands on FK Liepaja taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grobina FK Liepaja
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 12
Draws 11 6
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.73 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
3:1
Jun 16, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs FK Liepaja
1:0
Apr 28, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
1:1
Sep 21, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs FK Liepaja
0:1
Jun 30, 2025 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Grobina
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grobina Compare

Top Goalscorer Aruna A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

FK Liepaja Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grobina 26 / 100
FK Liepaja 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grobina FK Liepaja

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Liepaja Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Liepaja has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Grobina stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Grobina scored in 53% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Grobina VS FK Liepaja
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Grobina

(Home)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
Page 1 of 6

FK Liepaja

(Away)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)