Sport Picks
Grosseto vs Follonica Gavorrano
Italy
Serie D - Group E Stadio Carlo Zecchini, Grosseto 
Match Events
64'
64'
Presta F.
77'
77'
Sabelli P.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
40%
29%
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
66%
/ Medium Confidence
- Follonica Gavorrano haven't matched Grosseto's recent run of results.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 20%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Grosseto | Follonica Gavorrano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 18 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 28, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:1
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Grosseto
2:4
Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Follonica Gavorrano
2:2
Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs Grosseto
0:2
Feb 18, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Grosseto Compare
Top Goalscorer Sabelli P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Follonica Gavorrano Compare
Top Goalscorer Presta F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Grosseto 32 / 100
Follonica Gavorrano 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Grosseto Follonica Gavorrano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Grosseto scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Follonica Gavorrano has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.
Grosseto has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Grosseto VS Follonica Gavorrano
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Grosseto
(Home) 17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1 Grosseto
13 May
Grosseto
2 : 3 Ostiamare
02 May
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Grosseto
26 Apr
Grosseto
0 : 2 San Donato Tavarnelle
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0 Grosseto
Page 1 of 6
13 May
Grosseto
2 : 3 Ostiamare
26 Apr
Grosseto
0 : 2 San Donato Tavarnelle
12 Apr
Grosseto
2 : 2 Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
28 Mar
Grosseto
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
15 Mar
Grosseto
1 : 1 Scandicci
Page 1 of 3
Follonica Gavorrano
(Away) 10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2 Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 2 Tau
26 Apr
Scandicci
1 : 3 Follonica Gavorrano
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1 Orvietana
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Scandicci
1 : 3 Follonica Gavorrano
12 Apr
Sporting Trestina
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
28 Mar
Grosseto
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
15 Mar
Foligno
2 : 0 Follonica Gavorrano
22 Feb
Ghiviborgo
6 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)