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Grosseto vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E Stadio Carlo Zecchini
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grosseto play Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro in the Serie D - Group E. It looks like a close match. Recently, Grosseto averaged 1.68 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro averaged 0.53 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Grosseto won 2, Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 12, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Grosseto and 0.88 for Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro. This points to a Grosseto double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Grosseto
35%
Draws
12%
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Grosseto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • Grosseto picked up more points recently compared to Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 25%
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 57%
Second Half Goal 60%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grosseto Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 20 1
Draws 5 14
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.68 0.53
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
2:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs Grosseto
0:2
Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro vs Grosseto
0:0
Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Grosseto Compare

Top Goalscorer Mone I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Benedetti L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro Compare

Top Goalscorer Belli L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grosseto 53 / 100
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro 13 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grosseto Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Grosseto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Grosseto & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.7%
2.22
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Grosseto attacking → ← attacking Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grosseto scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Grosseto went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

65 Points in last 5 17
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Grosseto34226658:2572
2Tau34189753:3363
3Prato34205949:2963
4Siena34179857:3560
5Seravezza Pozzi341512742:2957
6Terranuova Traiana341491128:3051
7Foligno341491145:3751
8Scandicci341115839:3248
9Montevarchi341016828:3246
10Sporting Trestina3410121240:4242
11San Donato Tavarnelle349131230:3540
12Ghiviborgo3410101442:4440
13Orvietana349111433:3738
14Follonica Gavorrano349101536:4937
15Camaiore Calcio34981741:5435
16Poggibonsi347101729:4631
17Cannara34682024:5926
18Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro342161620:4622