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Grosuplje vs Maribor - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Slovenia Slovenia

Prva liga Nogometni park Brinje, Grosuplje
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Grosuplje host Maribor in the Prva liga. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Maribor have shipped 1.1 goals a game lately, while Grosuplje have conceded 1.59 and scored 1.74. Past meetings favor Grosuplje slightly — 1-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 25, 2026, ending 3:0. Model xG sits at 1.50 vs 1.81, favoring Grosuplje. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Grosuplje
30%
Draws
42%
Maribor
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maribor

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Grosuplje carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Maribor's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Grosuplje Clean Sheet 11%
Maribor Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Grosuplje Maribor
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 5 13
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.74 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Prva liga
Maribor vs Grosuplje
3:0
Oct 29, 2025 Slovenian Cup
Grosuplje vs Maribor
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Grosuplje 22 / 100
Maribor 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Grosuplje Maribor

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maribor Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:7
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Grosuplje found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (34 games).

Maribor's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Grosuplje has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Grosuplje VS Maribor
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Grosuplje

(Home)
20 Sept
Grosuplje
2 : 1
Radomlje
11 Sept
Grosuplje
1 : 2
Nafta
05 Sept
O. Ljubljana
3 : 0
Grosuplje
30 Aug
Grosuplje
4 : 1
Celje
21 Aug
Aluminij
4 : 2
Grosuplje
Page 1 of 7

Maribor

(Away)
28 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
HNK Gorica
19 Sept
Maribor
2 : 2
Aluminij
13 Sept
Radomlje
0 : 3
Maribor
06 Sept
Maribor
1 : 1
Mura
30 Aug
Nafta
2 : 3
Maribor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Maribor 10 5 5 0 19:8 20
2 Koper 10 5 3 2 11:8 18
3 Bravo 10 5 3 2 12:10 18
4 O. Ljubljana 10 4 2 4 10:8 14
5 Aluminij 10 3 4 3 16:11 13
6 Nafta 10 4 1 5 17:16 13
7 Celje 9 3 3 3 11:11 12
8 Grosuplje 10 3 2 5 14:18 11
9 Mura 10 2 3 5 10:21 9
10 Radomlje 9 1 2 6 9:18 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva liga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. SNL 2027/2028 (Main)