Sport Picks

Stadium Background

GS Loures vs Sertanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023 game between GS Loures and Sertanense finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sertanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
GS Loures
30%
Draws
16%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: GS Loures

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and GS Loures come out ahead of Sertanense on wins alone.
  • Model gives GS Loures a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sertanense have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
GS Loures Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GS Loures Sertanense
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.07 1
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GS Loures vs Sertanense
1:3
Dec 18, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs GS Loures
2:1
May 5, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GS Loures vs Sertanense
2:3
Jan 6, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs GS Loures
0:0
May 24, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
GS Loures vs Sertanense
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GS Loures 59 / 100
Sertanense 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GS Loures Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GS Loures Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 33 matches.

GS Loures found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

GS Loures went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Sertanense
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

GS Loures

(Home)
16 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
2 : 1
GS Loures
08 Apr
GS Loures
1 : 3
Sertanense
02 Apr
Alcains
2 : 5
GS Loures
19 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 2
GS Loures
12 Mar
GS Loures
2 : 2
Pero Pinheiro
Page 1 of 6

Sertanense

(Away)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 1º Dezembro 25 15 5 5 37:19 50
2 Pero Pinheiro 25 15 7 4 34:24 49
3 Santarem 25 13 9 3 40:14 48
4 Marinhense 25 12 6 7 31:24 42
5 SB Castelo Branco 25 10 10 5 33:27 40
6 Mortagua FC 25 9 9 7 41:38 36
7 Sertanense 25 9 9 7 30:25 36
8 Sintrense 25 10 9 7 34:25 36
9 GD Coruchense 25 8 9 9 30:28 30
10 Uniao Da Serra 25 9 3 13 31:40 30
11 GS Loures 25 6 7 12 26:41 25
12 Arronches Benfica 25 5 4 16 15:39 19
13 Alcains 25 4 2 19 23:47 14
14 Rio Maior SC 0 1 0 12 0:0 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2022/2023 (Promotion Group)