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Guadalajara Chivas U20 vs Toluca U20

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX U20
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas U20 play Toluca U20 in the Liga MX U20. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guadalajara Chivas U20 averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Toluca U20 averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. In past meetings, Guadalajara Chivas U20 won 1, Toluca U20 won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 13, 2023 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Guadalajara Chivas U20 and 1.63 for Toluca U20. This points to a Guadalajara Chivas U20 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Guadalajara Chivas U20
30%
Draws
33%
Toluca U20
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guadalajara Chivas U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadalajara Chivas U20 picked up more points recently compared to Toluca U20.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Guadalajara Chivas U20 Clean Sheet 14%
Toluca U20 Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas U20 Toluca U20
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 13 15
Draws 12 5
Losses 6 14
Goals Scored 1.55 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 13, 2023 Liga MX U20
Guadalajara Chivas U20 vs Toluca U20
1:1
May 10, 2023 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
3:2
Jan 21, 2023 Liga MX U20
Guadalajara Chivas U20 vs Toluca U20
2:1
Sep 4, 2022 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
1:0
Apr 9, 2022 Liga MX U20
Toluca U20 vs Guadalajara Chivas U20
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadalajara Chivas U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cendejas M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Toluca U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Martin del Campo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas U20 36 / 100
Toluca U20 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas U20 Toluca U20

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guadalajara Chivas U20 or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guadalajara Chivas U20 attacking → ← attacking Toluca U20

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalajara Chivas U20 scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Toluca U20 let in goals in 79% of their last 34 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Guadalajara Chivas U20 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Toluca U20 lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 50
2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guadalajara Chivas U2017105228:1935
2Club America U2017104326:1934
3Atlas U201795336:2232
4Toluca U2017102530:1732
5Tigres UANL U201776424:1727
6Puebla U201773734:3024
7Queretaro U201773729:3024
8Santos Laguna U201780926:2924
9Juarez U201773718:2424
10Necaxa U201765626:2523
11Monterrey U201765620:1923
12Cruz Azul U201757518:1822
13Club Tijuana U201756621:2121
14UNAM Pumas U201755727:2620
15Pachuca U201754827:3019
16Mazatlan U2017521017:3317
17Club Leon U201726919:3012
18Atletico San Luis U2017151115:328