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Guadalajara Chivas vs Club America

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX 2025/2026 Estadio Akron
Our Tip

Match Events

35'
Rodriguez B.
41' Event
Gonzalez A.
Assist: Campillo Del Campo D.
46'
Sub
Davila V. In: Raphael Veiga
Out: Davila V.

AI Match Summary

The Liga MX 2025/2026 game between Guadalajara Chivas and Club America finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Guadalajara Chivas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Guadalajara Chivas
39%
Draws
31%
Club America
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Club America haven't matched Guadalajara Chivas's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 68%
Club America Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Club America
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 7 10
Losses 6 8
Goals Scored 1.38 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club America
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Liga MX
Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:2
Mar 13, 2025 CONCACAF Champions Cup
Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas
4:0
Mar 9, 2025 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Club America
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadalajara Chivas Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Club America Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas 41 / 100
Club America 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas Club America

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GUA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadalajara Chivas's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Club America conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadalajara Chivas VS Club America
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1UNAM Pumas17106134:1736
2Guadalajara Chivas17113333:1736
3Cruz Azul1796231:1833
4Pachuca1794425:1931
5Toluca1786328:1630
6Atlas1775516:1826
7Tigres UANL1774628:1825
8Club America1774620:1725
9Club Tijuana1758419:1723
10Club Leon1771922:3222
11Queretaro1748517:2120
12Juarez1754826:3219
13Monterrey1753922:2418
14Atletico San Luis1753924:2718
15Necaxa1753919:2518
16Mazatlan FC17431022:3715
17Puebla17341013:2613
18Santos Laguna17331120:3812