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Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Jul 11, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas host Leones Negros in the Club Friendly. Little to choose between these two on current form. Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 1.66 scored and 1.1 conceded recently, against Leones Negros's 1.39 scored and 1.82 conceded. Head-to-head, Guadalajara Chivas have won 3 to Leones Negros's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 11, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.63 - 1.38) back Guadalajara Chivas to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Guadalajara Chivas
35%
Draws
32%
Leones Negros
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Leones Negros haven't matched Guadalajara Chivas's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Guadalajara Chivas a 33% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 17%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Leones Negros
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.66 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
0:0
Feb 18, 2016 Copa Mexico
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
1:0
Feb 4, 2016 Copa Mexico
Leones Negros vs Guadalajara Chivas
0:1
Jan 25, 2015 Liga MX
Leones Negros vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:1
Sep 7, 2014 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas 75 / 100
Leones Negros 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas Leones Negros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guadalajara Chivas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leones Negros has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Guadalajara Chivas's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Solid form: Guadalajara Chivas remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Guadalajara Chivas VS Leones Negros
2 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadalajara Chivas

(Home)
26 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Queretaro
20 Sept
Club America
2 : 2
Guadalajara Chivas
14 Sept
Guadalajara Chivas
3 : 0
UNAM Pumas
05 Sept
Atletico San Luis
0 : 3
Guadalajara Chivas
29 Aug
Pachuca
1 : 1
Guadalajara Chivas
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Leones Negros

(Away)
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2
Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2
Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3
Leones Negros
30 Aug
Leones Negros
1 : 1
Piratas
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