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Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros

World World

Club Friendly
Sat, Jul 11, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guadalajara Chivas host Leones Negros in the Club Friendly. Little to choose between these two on current form. Guadalajara Chivas have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.13 conceded recently, against Leones Negros's 0.83 scored and 0.83 conceded. Head-to-head, Guadalajara Chivas have won 3 to Leones Negros's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Jul 11, 2026, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.17 - 0.98) back Guadalajara Chivas to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Guadalajara Chivas
44%
Draws
20%
Leones Negros
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Leones Negros haven't matched Guadalajara Chivas's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Guadalajara Chivas Clean Sheet 20%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadalajara Chivas Leones Negros
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 14 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 7 15
Goals Scored 1.5 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.83
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Club Friendly
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
0:0
Feb 18, 2016 Copa Mexico
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
1:0
Feb 4, 2016 Copa Mexico
Leones Negros vs Guadalajara Chivas
0:1
Jan 25, 2015 Liga MX
Leones Negros vs Guadalajara Chivas
1:1
Sep 7, 2014 Liga MX
Guadalajara Chivas vs Leones Negros
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadalajara Chivas 36 / 100
Leones Negros 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadalajara Chivas Leones Negros

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEO Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guadalajara Chivas scored in 78% of their last 27 outings.

Leones Negros's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Solid form: Guadalajara Chivas remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Leones Negros has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guadalajara Chivas VS Leones Negros
1.5 Goals Scored 0.83
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.83
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 33%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadalajara Chivas

(Home)
19 Jul
Guadalajara Chivas
0 : 2
Toluca
04 Jul
Correcaminos
0 : 0
Guadalajara Chivas
17 May
Guadalajara Chivas
1 : 2
Cruz Azul
14 May
Cruz Azul
2 : 2
Guadalajara Chivas
10 May
Guadalajara Chivas
2 : 0
Tigres UANL
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Leones Negros

(Away)
19 Apr
Leones Negros
1 : 2
Cancun
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1
Leones Negros
05 Apr
Leones Negros
2 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1
Leones Negros
22 Mar
Leones Negros
1 : 3
Zacatecas Mineros
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