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Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Wildey Turf, Bridgetown
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Caull K.
Assist: Frederick K.
13'
Sub
Raddas Y. In: Cysique M.
Out: Raddas Y.
30'
Jouis A.

AI Match Summary

The CONCACAF Nations League game between Guadeloupe and Saint Lucia finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Saint Lucia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Guadeloupe
15%
Draws
59%
Saint Lucia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Saint Lucia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Guadeloupe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular CONCACAF Nations League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Saint Lucia have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Guadeloupe Clean Sheet 20%
Saint Lucia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guadeloupe Saint Lucia
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 17 15
Draws 3 3
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.97 1.42
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia
0:1
Oct 2, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe
3:0
Oct 15, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Guadeloupe vs Saint Lucia
2:0
Oct 13, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guadeloupe Compare

Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Saint Lucia Compare

Top Goalscorer Caull K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guadeloupe 36 / 100
Saint Lucia 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guadeloupe Saint Lucia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Saint Lucia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:6
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadeloupe's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Saint Lucia let in goals in 77% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Guadeloupe went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guadeloupe VS Saint Lucia
2 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 3.38
63% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Guadeloupe

(Home)
05 Oct
Guadeloupe
0 : 1
Saint Lucia
02 Oct
Saint Lucia
3 : 0
Guadeloupe
28 Sept
Guadeloupe
2 : 2
Barbados
25 Sept
Bermuda
1 : 2
Guadeloupe
24 Jun
Guadeloupe
2 : 3
Guatemala
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Saint Lucia

(Away)
05 Oct
Guadeloupe
0 : 1
Saint Lucia
02 Oct
Saint Lucia
3 : 0
Guadeloupe
29 Sept
Saint Lucia
5 : 2
Bermuda
26 Sept
Barbados
2 : 0
Saint Lucia
27 Mar
Azerbaijan
6 : 1
Saint Lucia
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