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Guajara vs Real Ariquemes

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Rondoniense 2017
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guajara play Real Ariquemes in the Campeonato Rondoniense 2017. It looks like a close match. Recently, Guajara averaged 0.83 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Real Ariquemes averaged 0.58 goals scored and 2.25 conceded. In past meetings, Guajara won 1, Real Ariquemes won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 8, 2020 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.73 for Guajara and 0.74 for Real Ariquemes. This points to a Guajara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Guajara
31%
Draws
33%
Real Ariquemes
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Guajara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Guajara picked up more points recently compared to Real Ariquemes.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.73 vs 0.74 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Guajara Clean Sheet 27%
Real Ariquemes Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guajara Real Ariquemes
Matches Played 29 24
Wins 7 4
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.83 0.58
Goals Conceded 1.48 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2020 Rondoniense
Guajara vs Real Ariquemes
0:1
Feb 2, 2020 Rondoniense
Real Ariquemes vs Guajara
1:3
Mar 14, 2019 Rondoniense
Real Ariquemes vs Guajara
3:2
Feb 10, 2019 Rondoniense
Guajara vs Real Ariquemes
1:1
Apr 15, 2018 Rondoniense
Guajara vs Real Ariquemes
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guajara 38 / 100
Real Ariquemes 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guajara Real Ariquemes

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Guajara or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +28.5%
3.57
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guajara attacking → ← attacking Real Ariquemes

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guajara scored in 52% of their last 29 games.

Real Ariquemes let in goals in 79% of their last 24 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Guajara went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Real Ariquemes lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 18
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 4.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barcelona RO1493221:930
2Real Ariquemes1477018:728
3Vilhena1464418:1422
4Genus1447318:1319
5Ariquemes FC1438323:1517
6CA Rondoniense1445518:2017
7Ji-Parana1433821:2512
8Guajara1411129:434