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Guarani-MG vs Nacional de Muriae - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 2025
Guarani-MG Logo

Guarani-MG

2 - 0
FT
Nacional de Muriae Logo

Nacional de Muriae

Our Tip

Match Events

43' Event
Pedro Felipe
62' Event
Pedro Felipe
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Guarani-MG in this Mineiro 2 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Guarani-MG
20%
Draws
47%
Nacional de Muriae
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nacional de Muriae

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Guarani-MG have won more games recently than Nacional de Muriae.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Mineiro 2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Nacional de Muriae Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG Nacional de Muriae
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.33 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2025 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
2:1
May 25, 2025 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Nacional de Muriae
2:0
Jul 17, 2021 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
3:0
Oct 24, 2020 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Nacional de Muriae
0:3
Mar 19, 2018 Mineiro 2
Nacional de Muriae vs Guarani-MG
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani-MG Compare

Top Goalscorer Pedro Felipe
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Nacional de Muriae Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 32 / 100
Nacional de Muriae 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG Nacional de Muriae

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Nacional de Muriae has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Guarani-MG went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Guarani-MG's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Guarani-MG VS Nacional de Muriae
0.75 Goals Scored 1.14
1 Goals Conceded 0.86
50% Over 1.5 57%
38% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani-MG

(Home)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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Nacional de Muriae

(Away)
05 Oct
Nacional de Muriae
2 : 1
Nova Lavras
25 Sept
Inter de Minas
0 : 1
Nacional de Muriae
21 Sept
Nacional de Muriae
3 : 0
Santarritense
21 Jun
Valeriodoce
2 : 2
Nacional de Muriae
14 Jun
Nacional de Muriae
0 : 3
North Esporte Clube
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Patrocinense 10 5 2 3 7:6 17
2 URT 10 4 4 2 11:8 16
3 Mamore 10 3 4 3 11:11 13
4 Uberaba 10 2 5 3 11:11 11
5 Caldense 10 2 5 3 9:10 11
6 Varginha 10 2 4 4 9:12 10
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ipatinga 10 5 2 3 11:10 17
2 North Esporte Clube 10 4 4 2 17:13 16
3 Democrata SL 10 3 4 3 9:8 13
4 Valeriodoce 10 3 4 3 12:12 13
5 Guarani-MG 10 3 3 4 10:10 12
6 Nacional de Muriae 10 2 3 5 10:16 9
Promotion - Mineiro 2 2025 (Final Stage)
Relegation - Mineiro 3 2025 (Main)