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Guarani-MG vs North Esporte Clube

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Guarani-MG play North Esporte Clube in the Mineiro 2 2025. Guarani-MG are favorites here. Recently, Guarani-MG averaged 1.31 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. North Esporte Clube averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Guarani-MG won 0, North Esporte Clube won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 21, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Guarani-MG and 1.00 for North Esporte Clube. This points to a Guarani-MG double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Guarani-MG
25%
Draws
15%
North Esporte Clube
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Guarani-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Guarani-MG picked up more points recently compared to North Esporte Clube.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 23%
North Esporte Clube Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 62%
Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG North Esporte Clube
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 7 11
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.31 1.4
Goals Conceded 0.86 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2025 Mineiro 2
North Esporte Clube vs Guarani-MG
2:1
May 5, 2025 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs North Esporte Clube
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani-MG Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

North Esporte Clube Compare

Top Goalscorer Luiz Thiago
1 Goals
Assists Leader Anderson Magrao
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 59 / 100
North Esporte Clube 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG North Esporte Clube

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Guarani-MG & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Guarani-MG attacking → ← attacking North Esporte Clube

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarani-MG scored in 55% of their last 29 games.

North Esporte Clube let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Guarani-MG went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

North Esporte Clube lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 53
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.88
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Patrocinense105237:617
2URT1044211:816
3Mamore1034311:1113
4Uberaba1025311:1111
5Caldense102539:1011
6Varginha102449:1210
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Ipatinga1052311:1017
2North Esporte Clube1044217:1316
3Democrata SL103439:813
4Valeriodoce1034312:1213
5Guarani-MG1033410:1012
6Nacional de Muriae1023510:169