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Guarani-MG vs Serranense

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Mineiro 2 2018
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AI Match Summary

Guarani-MG in this Campeonato Mineiro 2 2018 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarani-MG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Guarani-MG
30%
Draws
16%
Serranense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani-MG

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Guarani-MG have won more games recently than Serranense.
  • Model gives Guarani-MG a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Guarani-MG Clean Sheet 20%
Serranense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani-MG Serranense
Matches Played 38 38
Wins 17 9
Draws 9 7
Losses 12 22
Goals Scored 1.24 1.05
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 3, 2021 Mineiro 2
Serranense vs Guarani-MG
0:1
Oct 10, 2020 Mineiro 2
Serranense vs Guarani-MG
3:0
Mar 29, 2018 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Serranense
2:1
Apr 1, 2017 Mineiro 2
Guarani-MG vs Serranense
0:0
Feb 25, 2017 Mineiro 2
Serranense vs Guarani-MG
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani-MG 85 / 100
Serranense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani-MG Serranense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani-MG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serranense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 38 matches.

Guarani-MG went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Serranense lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Guarani-MG scored in 55% of their last 38 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarani-MG VS Serranense
0.63 Goals Scored 0.83
1 Goals Conceded 2.67
50% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani-MG

(Home)
12 Jul
Guarani-MG
2 : 4
Boa
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Mamore
2 : 2
Guarani-MG
27 Jun
Guarani-MG
2 : 0
Caldense
23 Jun
Uberaba
2 : 1
Guarani-MG
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Serranense

(Away)
11 Oct
Serranense
0 : 1
Boston City
05 Oct
Coimbra Esporte Clube
6 : 1
Serranense
27 Sept
Serranense
2 : 2
Tupi-MG
20 Sept
Novo Esporte
3 : 0
Serranense
06 Sept
Serranense
0 : 0
Uniao Luziense
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