Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Guarani vs Sp. Luqueno

Paraguay Paraguay

Copa de Primera Estadio Rogelio Livieres, Asunción
Guarani Logo

Guarani

2 - 1
FT
Sp. Luqueno Logo

Sp. Luqueno

Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Comas L.
32'
Quintana S.
34'
Segovia I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Guarani
30%
Draws
19%
Sp. Luqueno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Guarani

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guarani lately — more wins on the board than Sp. Luqueno.
  • Model gives Guarani a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Guarani have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Guarani, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Guarani Clean Sheet 68%
Sp. Luqueno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarani Sp. Luqueno
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 7
Draws 11 5
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 0.97 1.04
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Guarani
0:1
Jul 26, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sp. Luqueno
1:2
Apr 18, 2026 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sp. Luqueno
2:1
Feb 23, 2026 Copa de Primera
Sp. Luqueno vs Guarani
3:2
Nov 30, 2025 Copa de Primera
Guarani vs Sp. Luqueno
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarani Compare

Top Goalscorer Tanda P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Sp. Luqueno Compare

Top Goalscorer Maggi I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarani 95 / 100
Sp. Luqueno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarani Sp. Luqueno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarani Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sp. Luqueno let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Guarani went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Guarani's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Guarani VS Sp. Luqueno
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarani

(Home)
25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1
Guarani
18 Sept
Sportivo Trinidense
0 : 1
Guarani
12 Sept
Guarani
1 : 1
Cerro Porteno
07 Sept
Guarani
2 : 0
Recoleta
02 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
1 : 1
Guarani
Page 1 of 6

Sp. Luqueno

(Away)
25 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
0 : 1
Guarani
20 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 0
Recoleta
13 Sept
Olimpia Asuncion
3 : 0
Sp. Luqueno
06 Sept
Sp. Luqueno
1 : 2
Sportivo Ameliano
01 Sept
2 de Mayo
2 : 2
Sp. Luqueno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Olimpia Asuncion 22 15 4 3 37:17 49
2 Nacional Asuncion 22 10 9 3 31:22 39
3 Cerro Porteno 22 11 5 6 30:22 38
4 Sportivo Ameliano 22 8 9 5 27:21 33
5 Sportivo Trinidense 22 8 8 6 30:24 32
6 Libertad Asuncion 22 9 4 9 34:26 31
7 Guarani 22 7 8 7 27:23 29
8 Recoleta 22 8 4 10 35:32 28
9 Rubio Nu 22 6 5 11 15:26 23
10 2 de Mayo 22 5 7 10 18:35 22
11 Sp. Luqueno 22 5 5 12 24:33 20
12 San Lorenzo 22 3 6 13 14:41 15
Promotion - Copa Libertadores 2027 (Group Stage)