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Guarany SE vs Atletico Gloriense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Henrique L.
50' Event
Henrique L.
62' Event
Fabio. J.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Guarany SE in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarany SE.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Guarany SE
30%
Draws
39%
Atletico Gloriense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico Gloriense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Guarany SE haven't matched Atletico Gloriense's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Atletico Gloriense a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 12%
Atletico Gloriense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Atletico Gloriense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 7 6
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Guarany SE vs Atletico Gloriense
1:1
Jan 31, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Atletico Gloriense
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique L.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Atletico Gloriense Compare

Top Goalscorer Geovane
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 14 / 100
Atletico Gloriense 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Atletico Gloriense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atletico Gloriense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Defensive concern: Atletico Gloriense conceded in 60% of 30 recent games.

Guarany SE's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Guarany SE went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Atletico Gloriense
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

Atletico Gloriense

(Away)
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
America de Propria
1 : 5
Atletico Gloriense
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)