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Guarany SE vs Desportiva Aracaju - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Our Tip

Match Events

88' Event
Willians Santana

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Guarany SE
20%
Draws
61%
Desportiva Aracaju
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Desportiva Aracaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Desportiva Aracaju lately — more wins on the board than Guarany SE.
  • Desportiva Aracaju are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Desportiva Aracaju arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Desportiva Aracaju, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 21%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarany SE Desportiva Aracaju
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 17
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.1 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 13, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Guarany SE vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:1
Feb 8, 2026 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Desportiva Aracaju
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarany SE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Desportiva Aracaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Willians Santana
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarany SE 10 / 100
Desportiva Aracaju 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarany SE Desportiva Aracaju

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Desportiva Aracaju Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Guarany SE scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Desportiva Aracaju let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Guarany SE has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Guarany SE VS Desportiva Aracaju
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarany SE

(Home)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
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Desportiva Aracaju

(Away)
30 Aug
Falcon
0 : 2
Desportiva Aracaju
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Falcon 5 5 0 0 9:1 15
2 Desportiva Aracaju 5 3 1 1 6:4 10
3 Lagarto 5 2 1 2 4:4 7
4 Atletico Gloriense 5 1 3 1 6:3 6
5 Guarany SE 5 1 1 3 4:9 4
6 America de Propria 5 0 0 5 5:13 0
Promotion - Copa Governo (Sergipe) (Play Offs)