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Guarnizo vs UM Escobedo

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Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

75' Event
Ruiz J.

AI Match Summary

Guarnizo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarnizo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Guarnizo
30%
Draws
39%
UM Escobedo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: UM Escobedo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Guarnizo lately — more wins on the board than UM Escobedo.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • UM Escobedo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 68%
UM Escobedo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarnizo UM Escobedo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 17 15
Draws 7 4
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 1.37 1.62
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs UM Escobedo
1:0
Nov 8, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Guarnizo
3:2
May 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Guarnizo
2:1
Jan 13, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs UM Escobedo
0:1
Mar 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UM Escobedo vs Guarnizo
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruiz J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

UM Escobedo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 41 / 100
UM Escobedo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarnizo UM Escobedo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarnizo scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

UM Escobedo let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Guarnizo remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS UM Escobedo
1 Goals Scored 1.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarnizo

(Home)
03 Oct
Torina
1 : 1
Guarnizo
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
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UM Escobedo

(Away)
03 Oct
Solares
0 : 0
UM Escobedo
26 Sept
UM Escobedo
2 : 1
Selaya
20 Sept
CD Laredo
2 : 0
UM Escobedo
12 Sept
UM Escobedo
0 : 3
Bezana
05 Sept
Torina
1 : 1
UM Escobedo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 34 26 5 3 86:15 83
2 CD Laredo 34 21 8 5 63:28 71
3 CD Tropezon 34 21 4 9 50:27 67
4 Guarnizo 34 19 9 6 47:26 66
5 UM Escobedo 34 21 2 11 65:43 65
6 Vimenor 34 17 8 9 47:36 59
7 Atletico Albericia 34 17 5 12 61:45 56
8 Cayon CD 34 17 5 12 50:41 56
9 Torina 34 15 8 11 39:40 53
10 Bezana 34 13 8 13 43:38 47
11 Castro 34 10 8 16 44:47 38
12 Selaya 34 8 8 18 32:44 32
13 CD Revilla 34 8 7 19 35:63 31
14 CD Barquereno 34 8 6 20 37:64 30
15 UC Cartes 34 6 10 18 28:52 28
16 CD Colindres 34 6 10 18 27:47 28
17 CD Montanas del Pas 34 6 8 20 35:87 26
18 SD Noja 34 4 7 23 22:68 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2025/2026 (Play Offs)