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Guarnizo vs Velarde

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Macias C.
33' Event
Solar D.
38'
Antunes R.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Guarnizo
15%
Draws
49%
Velarde
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Velarde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Velarde haven't matched Guarnizo's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 45%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 68%
Velarde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarnizo Velarde
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 17 4
Draws 11 9
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.37 0.87
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.57 0.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
3:1
Feb 25, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
2:2
Oct 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Guarnizo
0:1
Jan 19, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Guarnizo
0:1
Sep 1, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Solar D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.79

Velarde Compare

Top Goalscorer Macias C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cuesta M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.5
Avg xA / game 0.31

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 41 / 100
Velarde 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarnizo Velarde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarnizo found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (35 games).

Velarde has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Difficult form: Velarde registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS Velarde
1.75 Goals Scored 0.6
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.4
50% Over 1.5 40%
38% Over 2.5 40%
25% Over 3.5 40%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarnizo

(Home)
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
24 May
CD Tropezon
3 : 0
Guarnizo
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Velarde

(Away)
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
11 May
Velarde
0 : 3
Vimenor
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UM Escobedo 34 21 5 8 58:30 68
2 CD Laredo 34 18 7 9 49:22 61
3 Torina 34 16 12 6 45:37 60
4 Atletico Albericia 34 17 7 10 54:37 58
5 Vimenor 34 17 6 11 43:32 57
6 CD Tropezon 34 15 11 8 49:38 56
7 Bezana 34 17 5 12 49:42 56
8 Castro 34 16 4 14 41:41 52
9 Guarnizo 34 13 9 12 37:31 48
10 CD Revilla 34 12 8 14 41:52 44
11 Naval Reinosa 34 9 16 9 39:37 43
12 CD Colindres 34 13 4 17 37:42 43
13 CD Siete Villas 34 11 9 14 50:48 42
14 UD Samano 34 11 8 15 40:44 41
15 Atletico Mineros 34 8 9 17 35:63 33
16 Solares 34 9 6 19 33:54 33
17 UC Cartes 34 8 7 19 32:50 31
18 Velarde 34 3 11 20 29:61 20
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 (Play Offs)