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Guarnizo vs Velarde - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Montes L.
24' Event
Carral Pena R.
30' Event
Quitora Espinosa C. S.

AI Match Summary

Guarnizo in this Tercera RFEF - Group 3 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Guarnizo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Guarnizo
20%
Draws
40%
Velarde
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Guarnizo have won more games recently than Velarde.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Guarnizo Clean Sheet 20%
Velarde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guarnizo Velarde
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 16 3
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.32 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
3:1
Feb 25, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
2:2
Oct 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Guarnizo
0:1
Jan 19, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs Guarnizo
0:1
Sep 1, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Guarnizo vs Velarde
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Guarnizo Compare

Top Goalscorer Montes L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carral Pena R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Velarde Compare

Top Goalscorer Quitora Espinosa C. S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guarnizo 31 / 100
Velarde 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guarnizo Velarde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guarnizo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Velarde's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Attacking prowess: Guarnizo scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Velarde's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Guarnizo VS Velarde
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.33
50% Over 1.5 33%
38% Over 2.5 33%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Guarnizo

(Home)
03 Oct
Torina
1 : 1
Guarnizo
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
20 Sept
UD Samano
4 : 1
Guarnizo
12 Sept
Guarnizo
0 : 1
Cayon CD
06 Sept
Atletico Mineros
2 : 1
Guarnizo
Page 1 of 7

Velarde

(Away)
03 Oct
Velarde
0 : 1
Cayon CD
26 Sept
Guarnizo
3 : 1
Velarde
19 Sept
Velarde
1 : 4
Vimenor
13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1
Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0
Naval Reinosa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Tropezon 5 5 0 0 11:2 15
2 Bezana 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
3 CD Laredo 5 4 0 1 12:2 12
4 Vimenor 5 3 1 1 7:3 10
5 Cayon CD 5 3 1 1 5:2 10
6 Torina 5 2 3 0 8:2 9
7 UD Samano 5 2 2 1 12:6 8
8 CD Revilla 5 2 2 1 10:6 8
9 Selaya 5 2 1 2 5:7 7
10 Atletico Mineros 5 2 0 3 4:11 6
11 Castro 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
12 UM Escobedo 5 1 2 2 3:7 5
13 Guarnizo 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
14 Solares 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
15 Velarde 5 1 1 3 3:8 4
16 Atletico Albericia 5 0 1 4 3:9 1
17 Naval Reinosa 5 0 1 4 4:13 1
18 CD Barquereno 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 (Play Offs)