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Gubbio vs Perugia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Barani L.
14'
Stramaccioni D.
24'
Sub
Stramaccioni D. In: Papazov D.
Out: Stramaccioni D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B game between Gubbio and Perugia finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perugia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Gubbio
15%
Draws
51%
Perugia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Perugia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Gubbio carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Serie C - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Gubbio Clean Sheet 68%
Perugia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gubbio Perugia
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 10
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.2 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Perugia
1:3
Jan 18, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Gubbio
0:1
Sep 6, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Perugia
1:1
Jan 20, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Gubbio vs Perugia
1:0
Sep 15, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Gubbio
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gubbio Compare

Top Goalscorer Barani L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Riccardi D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tozzuolo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gubbio 41 / 100
Perugia 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gubbio Perugia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gubbio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Gubbio scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Perugia has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gubbio VS Perugia
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gubbio

(Home)
03 Oct
Gubbio
1 : 3
Perugia
27 Sept
Ravenna
2 : 0
Gubbio
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Pescara
1 : 1
Gubbio
12 Sept
Gubbio
3 : 1
Latina
Page 1 of 6

Perugia

(Away)
03 Oct
Gubbio
1 : 3
Perugia
27 Sept
Perugia
1 : 0
Reggiana
20 Sept
Grosseto
2 : 0
Perugia
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 8 7 1 0 15:4 22
2 Ravenna 8 5 2 1 13:4 17
3 Grosseto 8 4 3 1 14:7 15
4 Reggiana 8 4 2 2 12:7 14
5 Livorno 8 4 2 2 10:9 14
6 Perugia 8 4 1 3 9:12 13
7 Guidonia 1937 8 3 3 2 10:7 12
8 Campobasso 8 3 3 2 12:11 12
9 Sassari Torres 8 3 3 2 9:9 12
10 Pescara 8 3 2 3 10:11 11
11 Forli FC 8 2 4 2 13:12 10
12 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
13 Ostiamare 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
14 Vado 8 2 2 4 6:8 8
15 Pineto 8 1 4 3 6:11 7
16 Gubbio 8 2 1 5 10:16 7
17 Latina 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
18 Pianese 8 1 3 4 6:10 6
19 Sambenedettese 8 1 2 5 11:14 5
20 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 8:16 4
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)