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Guinea Bissau vs Mali

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Estádio 24 de Setembro, Bissau
Guinea Bissau Logo

Guinea Bissau

0 - 0
FT
Mali Logo

Mali

Our Tip

Match Events

31'
Bura
46'
Sub
Coulibaly L. In: Haidara A.
Out: Coulibaly L.
62'
Sub
Camara M. In: Koita S.
Out: Camara M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-0. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Guinea Bissau
30%
Draws
39%
Mali
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Mali

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mali come out ahead of Guinea Bissau on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Mali arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Guinea Bissau Clean Sheet 17%
Mali Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Guinea Bissau Mali
Matches Played 28 31
Wins 4 13
Draws 7 11
Losses 17 7
Goals Scored 0.75 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.64 0.58
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 15, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Guinea Bissau vs Mali
0:0
Oct 11, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Mali vs Guinea Bissau
1:0
Jan 6, 2024 Friendly International
Mali vs Guinea Bissau
6:2
Aug 22, 2022 Friendly International
Mali vs Guinea Bissau
0:0
Aug 4, 2019 African Nations Championship
Mali vs Guinea Bissau
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Guinea Bissau 36 / 100
Mali 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Guinea Bissau Mali

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mali Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Guinea Bissau scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Mali has conceded goals in 45% of their last 31 outings.

Guinea Bissau went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Guinea Bissau VS Mali
0.5 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Guinea Bissau

(Home)
31 Mar
Burkina Faso
1 : 1
Guinea Bissau
28 Mar
Burkina Faso
5 : 0
Guinea Bissau
12 Oct
Egypt
1 : 0
Guinea Bissau
08 Oct
Ethiopia
1 : 0
Guinea Bissau
08 Sept
Guinea Bissau
2 : 0
Djibouti
Page 1 of 6

Mali

(Away)
04 Jun
Iran
2 : 0
Mali
31 Mar
Russia
0 : 0
Mali
09 Jan
Mali
0 : 1
Senegal
03 Jan
Mali
2 : 1
Tunisia
29 Dec
Comoros
0 : 0
Mali
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Comoros 6 3 3 0 7:4 12
2 Tunisia 6 3 1 2 7:6 10
3 Gambia 6 2 2 2 6:6 8
4 Madagascar 6 0 2 4 4:8 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 6 6 0 0 26:2 18
2 Gabon 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
3 Lesotho 6 1 1 4 2:13 4
4 Central Africa 6 1 0 5 3:14 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Egypt 6 4 2 0 12:2 14
2 Botswana 6 2 2 2 4:7 8
3 Mauritania 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Cape Verde 6 1 1 4 3:7 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nigeria 6 3 2 1 9:3 11
2 Benin 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
3 Rwanda 6 2 2 2 5:7 8
4 Libya 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 6 5 1 0 16:2 16
2 Equatorial Guinea 6 2 2 2 5:8 8
3 Togo 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
4 Liberia 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Angola 6 4 2 0 7:2 14
2 Sudan 6 2 2 2 4:6 8
3 Niger 6 2 1 3 7:6 7
4 Ghana 6 0 3 3 3:7 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zambia 6 4 1 1 7:4 13
2 Ivory Coast 6 4 0 2 12:3 12
3 Sierra Leone 6 1 2 3 5:10 5
4 Chad 6 0 3 3 1:8 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 D.R. Congo 6 4 0 2 7:3 12
2 Tanzania 6 3 1 2 5:4 10
3 Guinea 6 3 0 3 9:5 9
4 Ethiopia 6 1 1 4 3:12 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mali 6 4 2 0 10:1 14
2 Mozambique 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
3 Guinea Bissau 6 1 2 3 4:6 5
4 Eswatini 6 0 2 4 2:13 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cameroon 6 4 2 0 8:2 14
2 Zimbabwe 6 2 3 1 6:4 9
3 Kenya 6 1 3 2 4:7 6
4 Namibia 6 0 2 4 2:7 2
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 South Africa 6 4 2 0 16:5 14
2 Uganda 6 4 1 1 8:5 13
3 Congo 6 1 1 4 4:12 4
4 South Sudan 6 1 0 5 6:12 3
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Senegal 6 5 1 0 10:1 16
2 Burkina Faso 6 3 1 2 10:7 10
3 Burundi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4
4 Malawi 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations 2025 (Main)