Sport Picks

Brazil

Campeonato Tocantinense 2018

SD Sparta

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Gurupi play SD Sparta in the Campeonato Tocantinense 2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gurupi averaged 1.23 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. SD Sparta averaged 1.36 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Gurupi won 0, SD Sparta won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 9, 2018 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Gurupi and 0.69 for SD Sparta. This points to a SD Sparta double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Gurupi

34%

Draws

36%

SD Sparta

Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: SD Sparta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

Gurupi picked up more points recently compared to SD Sparta.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 0.69 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

Gurupi Clean Sheet 28%

SD Sparta Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gurupi	SD Sparta
Matches Played	40	33
Wins	15	14
Draws	14	7
Losses	11	12
Goals Scored	1.23	1.36
Goals Conceded	0.82	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2018 Tocantinense

Gurupi vs SD Sparta

Possession: 43% - 50% Cards: 1 - 4

1:2

Apr 3, 2018 Tocantinense

SD Sparta vs Gurupi

Possession: 56% - 58% Cards: 4 - 0

3:3

Apr 29, 2017 Tocantinense

SD Sparta vs Gurupi

Possession: 45% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Apr 22, 2017 Tocantinense

Gurupi vs SD Sparta

Possession: 59% - 44% Cards: 1 - 1

0:4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gurupi 33 / 100

SD Sparta 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gurupi SD Sparta

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: SD Sparta or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gurupi attacking → ← attacking SD Sparta

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gurupi scored in 68% of their last 40 games.

SD Sparta let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Gurupi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

SD Sparta lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

59 Points in last 5 49

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Interporto	12	5	7	0	17:7	22
2	Tocantinopolis	12	6	3	3	19:14	21
3	Palmas	12	5	5	2	18:11	20
4	Gurupi	12	5	4	3	23:10	19
5	SD Sparta	12	4	3	5	18:17	15
6	Araguaina	12	3	6	3	13:13	15
7	Paraiso EC	12	0	0	12	0:36	0