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Haiti vs Aruba

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League Complejo Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad
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AI Match Summary

Haiti play Aruba in the CONCACAF Nations League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Haiti averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Aruba averaged 1.47 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. In past meetings, Haiti won 3, Aruba won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 7, 2025 ended 0:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.29 for Haiti and 1.67 for Aruba. This points to a Haiti double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Haiti
15%
Draws
30%
Aruba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Haiti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Haiti picked up more points recently compared to Aruba.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.29 vs 1.67 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Haiti Clean Sheet 13%
Aruba Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Haiti Aruba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 2.2 1.47
Goals Conceded 1.3 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.20
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.20

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 7, 2025 World Championship
Aruba vs Haiti
0:5
Oct 15, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Haiti vs Aruba
5:3
Oct 12, 2024 CONCACAF Nations League
Aruba vs Haiti
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Haiti Compare

Top Goalscorer Jean Jacques D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Deedson L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Ostiana R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kruydenhof J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2
Avg xA / game 1.22

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Haiti 52 / 100
Aruba 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Haiti Aruba

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Haiti Win (1)
Secondary Pick Haiti & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Haiti attacking → ← attacking Aruba

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Haiti scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Aruba let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.67 goals.

Haiti went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Aruba lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 34
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 2.20
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.20

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1El Salvador650112:615
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines641112:713
3Bonaire61144:84
4Montserrat61053:103
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Curacao641115:313
2Saint Lucia63037:159
3Grenada62137:67
4Saint Martin62048:136
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Haiti660029:518
2Puerto Rico630311:129
3Sint Maarten63037:189
4Aruba60065:170
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Dominican Republic660027:418
2Bermuda640215:1312
3Dominica61146:184
4Antigua and Barbuda60152:151