Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hamburger vs Freiburg

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Jatta B.
Assist: Gronbaek A.
16' Event
Matanovic I.
Assist: Kubler L.
20'
Kubler L.

AI Match Summary

The Bundesliga 2025/2026 game between Hamburger and Freiburg finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Hamburger.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Hamburger
30%
Draws
34%
Freiburg
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hamburger

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Hamburger haven't matched Freiburg's recent run of results.
  • Hamburger are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Bundesliga 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Freiburg have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Hamburger Clean Sheet 12%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamburger Freiburg
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 8 15
Draws 9 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Bundesliga
Hamburger vs Freiburg
3:2
Jan 10, 2026 Bundesliga
Freiburg vs Hamburger
2:1
Oct 30, 2024 DFB Pokal
Freiburg vs Hamburger
2:1
Jan 13, 2023 Club Friendly
Freiburg vs Hamburger
6:2
Apr 19, 2022 DFB Pokal
Hamburger vs Freiburg
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamburger Compare

Top Goalscorer Jatta B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vuskovic L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Freiburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Matanovic I.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamburger 35 / 100
Freiburg 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamburger Freiburg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamburger scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Freiburg conceded in 88% of 32 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Hamburger went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hamburger VS Freiburg
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamburger

(Home)
18 Jul
Rapid Vienna
3 : 2
Hamburger
16 May
Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1
Hamburger
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2
Freiburg
02 May
Eintracht Frankfurt
1 : 2
Hamburger
25 Apr
Hamburger
1 : 2
Hoffenheim
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Freiburg

(Away)
20 May
Freiburg
0 : 3
Aston Villa
16 May
Freiburg
4 : 1
RB Leipzig
10 May
Hamburger
3 : 2
Freiburg
07 May
Freiburg
3 : 1
Braga
03 May
Freiburg
1 : 1
Wolfsburg
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)