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Hamilton vs Christchurch

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Christchurch in this Chatham Cup 2023 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
37%
Christchurch
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Christchurch lately — more wins on the board than Hamilton.
  • Model gives Hamilton a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Christchurch arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Christchurch, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 15%
Christchurch Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Christchurch
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 16
Draws 7 5
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.64 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.55
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2023 Chatham Cup
Hamilton vs Christchurch
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 35 / 100
Christchurch 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Christchurch

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hamilton scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Christchurch has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Hamilton remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Christchurch
0 Goals Scored 2
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
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Christchurch

(Away)
05 Mar
Coastal Spirit
0 : 0
Christchurch
19 Feb
Nomads United
2 : 1
Christchurch
29 Nov
Christchurch
1 : 4
Auckland FC 2
21 Nov
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3
Christchurch
15 Nov
Christchurch
3 : 1
Western Suburbs
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 0
Melville 2
Western Springs 3
Auckland City 2
Roslyn Wakari 4
Wanaka FC 3
Napier City 0
Waterside Karori 3
Hamilton 3
Ngaruawahia AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 0
Christchurch 3
Petone 0
Wellington Olympic 5
Birkenhead 1
Eastern Suburbs 2
Quarter-finals
Melville 1
Western Springs 0
Roslyn Wakari 2
Waterside Karori 5
Hamilton 0
Christchurch 3
Wellington Olympic 2
Eastern Suburbs 3
Semi-finals
Melville 3
Waterside Karori 1
Christchurch 2
Eastern Suburbs 1
Final
Melville 2
Christchurch 3