Sport Picks

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Hamilton vs Cowdenbeath

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup ZLX Stadium, Hamilton
Wed, Sep 23, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Challenge Cup. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Hamilton at 2 goals for, 0.86 against; Cowdenbeath at 1.5 for, 1.67 against. Head-to-head, Hamilton have won 2 to Cowdenbeath's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2014, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.75 vs 0.94, favoring Hamilton. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
20%
Cowdenbeath
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Hamilton carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hamilton are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Hamilton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cowdenbeath, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 20%
Cowdenbeath Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Cowdenbeath
Matches Played 35 30
Wins 22 9
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 16
Goals Scored 2 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2014 Championship
Cowdenbeath vs Hamilton
1:1
Jan 25, 2014 Championship
Hamilton vs Cowdenbeath
3:4
Nov 16, 2013 Championship
Cowdenbeath vs Hamilton
2:4
Sep 21, 2013 Championship
Hamilton vs Cowdenbeath
1:0
May 4, 2013 Championship
Hamilton vs Cowdenbeath
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 85 / 100
Cowdenbeath 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Cowdenbeath

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton scored in 86% of their last 35 games.

Cowdenbeath let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Hamilton stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hamilton VS Cowdenbeath
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
38% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
08 Sept
Spartans
0 : 4
Hamilton
05 Sept
East Kilbride
0 : 1
Hamilton
29 Aug
Hamilton
1 : 0
Cove Rangers
25 Aug
Hamilton
0 : 1
Edinburgh City
22 Aug
East Fife
0 : 0
Hamilton
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Cowdenbeath

(Away)
15 Sept
Cowdenbeath
2 : 0
East Stirlingshire
12 Sept
Hill Of Beath
2 : 0
Cowdenbeath
08 Sept
Cowdenbeath
1 : 2
Kilmarnock B
29 Aug
Linlithgow Rose
3 : 2
Cowdenbeath
25 Aug
Cowdenbeath
1 : 3
East Kilbride
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 East Kilbride 3 3 0 0 11:5 9
2 Peterhead 3 3 0 0 9:3 9
3 Montrose 3 3 0 0 8:2 9
4 Stirling 3 3 0 0 10:5 9
5 Clydebank FC 3 2 1 0 9:3 7
6 Queen of the South 3 2 1 0 6:1 7
7 Aberdeen B 3 2 1 0 8:4 7
8 Alloa 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
9 East Fife 4 2 1 1 12:9 7
10 Celtic B 3 2 1 0 9:6 7
11 Edinburgh City 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
12 Elgin City 3 2 0 1 10:2 6
13 Cove Rangers 3 2 0 1 10:5 6
14 St. Mirren B 3 2 0 1 9:4 6
15 Ross County 3 2 0 1 9:5 6
16 Kelty Hearts 3 2 0 1 9:7 6
17 Hearts B 3 2 0 1 10:9 6
18 Airdrieonians 3 2 0 1 5:4 6
19 Bonnyrigg Rose 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
20 Annan 3 1 1 1 6:3 4
21 Spartans 3 1 1 1 7:6 4
22 Berwick 3 1 1 1 6:6 4
23 Kilmarnock B 3 1 1 1 6:7 4
24 Rangers B 3 1 0 2 7:5 3
25 Clachnacuddin 3 1 0 2 6:4 3
26 Formartine Utd 2 1 0 1 6:4 3
27 Stranraer 3 1 0 2 7:6 3
28 Hamilton 3 1 0 2 5:4 3
29 Dundee Utd B 3 1 0 2 3:9 3
30 Forfar Athletic 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
31 Dumbarton 3 0 1 2 4:11 1
32 Cumbernauld Colts 3 0 1 2 1:8 1
33 Banks O' Dee 3 0 1 2 2:10 1
34 Fraserburgh 3 0 1 2 1:10 1
35 Dundee FC B 3 0 0 3 4:9 0
36 Cowdenbeath 3 0 0 3 3:8 0
37 Hibernian B 3 0 0 3 0:6 0
38 Clyde 3 0 0 3 2:11 0
39 Motherwell B 4 0 0 4 4:15 0
40 Gala Fairydean Rovers 3 0 0 3 1:13 0
Promotion - Challenge Cup (Play Offs)