Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hamilton vs Ngaruawahia AFC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup 2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 5-1, with Hamilton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Hamilton
15%
Draws
0%
Ngaruawahia AFC
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Ngaruawahia AFC haven't matched Hamilton's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Hamilton a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Hamilton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hamilton, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 14%
Ngaruawahia AFC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Ngaruawahia AFC
Matches Played 31 3
Wins 13 0
Draws 7 0
Losses 11 3
Goals Scored 1.68 1
Goals Conceded 1.77 4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2023 Chatham Cup
Hamilton vs Ngaruawahia AFC
3:2
Jul 10, 2021 Chatham Cup
Hamilton vs Ngaruawahia AFC
5:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 57 / 100
Ngaruawahia AFC 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Ngaruawahia AFC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamilton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton found the back of the net in 87% of recent matches (31 games).

Ngaruawahia AFC let in goals in 100% of their last 3 matches.

H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.

Hamilton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Hamilton VS Ngaruawahia AFC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 4
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
29 Jul
Hamilton
0 : 3
Christchurch
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
20 Aug
Eastern Suburbs
1 : 0
Hamilton
30 Jul
Miramar
3 : 4
Hamilton
09 Jul
Auckland United
0 : 1
Hamilton
Page 1 of 7

Ngaruawahia AFC

(Away)
09 Jul
Hamilton
3 : 2
Ngaruawahia AFC
10 Jul
Hamilton
5 : 1
Ngaruawahia AFC
29 Jun
Onehunga
4 : 0
Ngaruawahia AFC

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Hamilton 5
Ngaruawahia AFC 1
Cashmere Technical 3
Christchurch 0
Western Suburbs 2
Waterside Karori 0
Melville 2
Bay Olympic 1
Miramar 4
Lower Hutt City 1
Birkenhead 3
Auckland City 4
North Shore 1
Waiheke United 0
Dunedin City Royals 1
Otago University 4
Quarter-finals
Hamilton 0
Cashmere Technical 4
Western Suburbs 1
Melville 0
Miramar 2
Auckland City 0
North Shore 3
Otago University 2
Semi-finals
Cashmere Technical 1
Western Suburbs 0
Miramar 3
North Shore 0
Final
Cashmere Technical 4
Miramar 2