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Hamilton vs Raith - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

Challenge Cup ZLX Stadium, Hamilton
Hamilton Logo

Hamilton

Tue, Nov 3, 2026
2 - 1
07:45 PM
Raith Logo

Raith

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Shiels D.
45' Event
Tiffoney S.
Assist: Fordyce C.
1' Event
Morgan L.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Hamilton
30%
Draws
27%
Raith
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hamilton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hamilton lately — more wins on the board than Raith.
  • Hamilton are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Hamilton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hamilton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Hamilton Clean Sheet 20%
Raith Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamilton Raith
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 20 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 3 10
Goals Scored 2.14 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.71 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 3, 2026 Challenge Cup
Hamilton vs Raith
2:1
Jul 18, 2026 League Cup
Hamilton vs Raith
2:1
Jun 27, 2026 Club Friendly
Raith vs Hamilton
2:2
Dec 9, 2025 Challenge Cup
Raith vs Hamilton
5:2
Mar 29, 2025 Championship
Hamilton vs Raith
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamilton Compare

Top Goalscorer Shiels D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Raith Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiffoney S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamilton 42 / 100
Raith 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamilton Raith

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamilton's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Hamilton went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Raith conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Hamilton VS Raith
2.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamilton

(Home)
03 Nov
Hamilton
2 : 1
Raith
31 Oct
Hamilton
1 : 1
Montrose
27 Oct
Ross County
1 : 1
Hamilton
24 Oct
Hamilton
2 : 1
East Fife
17 Oct
Airdrieonians
1 : 2
Hamilton
Page 1 of 6

Raith

(Away)
03 Nov
Hamilton
2 : 1
Raith
31 Oct
Arbroath
0 : 4
Raith
24 Oct
Raith
0 : 2
Inverness
17 Oct
Stenhousemuir
1 : 1
Raith
10 Oct
Raith
2 : 0
Queen's Park
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Spartans 0
Livingston 2
St. Mirren B 1
Peterhead 2
Hamilton 2
Raith 1
Formartine Utd 0
Cove Rangers 2
East Kilbride 7
Stirling 3
Edinburgh City 0
Partick 3
Bonnyrigg Rose 2
Dunfermline 4
Morton 0
Kelty Hearts 1
Ross County 2
Celtic B 0
Stenhousemuir 4
Berwick 1
Arbroath 1
Queen of the South 0
Airdrieonians 5
Elgin City 0
Annan 0
Ayr 2
Inverness 1
Montrose 0
Clydebank FC 1
Alloa 0
Aberdeen B 1
Queen's Park 2
1/8-finals
Livingston -
Peterhead -
Hamilton -
Cove Rangers -
East Kilbride -
Partick -
Dunfermline -
Kelty Hearts -
Ross County -
Stenhousemuir -
Arbroath -
Airdrieonians -
Ayr -
Inverness -
Clydebank FC -
Queen's Park -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -