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Hamrun vs Hibernians

Malta Malta

Premier League
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hamrun host Hibernians in the Premier League. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Hamrun have averaged 1.6 scored and 0.9 conceded recently, against Hibernians's 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded. Head-to-head, Hamrun have won 3 to Hibernians's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 18, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 1.06) point toward Hamrun. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Hamrun
30%
Draws
23%
Hibernians
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Hamrun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Hibernians haven't matched Hamrun's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Hamrun a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 20%
Hibernians Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamrun Hibernians
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.6 1.24
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
0:1
Feb 10, 2026 Super Cup
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Hibernians
2:0
May 14, 2025 FA Trophy
Hamrun vs Hibernians
1:2
Jan 19, 2025 Premier League
Hibernians vs Hamrun
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamrun 58 / 100
Hibernians 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamrun Hibernians

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamrun Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hamrun scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Hibernians let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Solid form: Hamrun remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hamrun VS Hibernians
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamrun

(Home)
18 Sept
Hamrun
4 : 1
Marsaxlokk
11 Sept
Birzebbuga
0 : 2
Hamrun
06 Sept
Zabbar
1 : 2
Hamrun
29 Aug
Hamrun
1 : 1
Floriana
22 Aug
Birkirkara
1 : 0
Hamrun
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Hibernians

(Away)
12 Sept
Birkirkara
1 : 1
Hibernians
02 Sept
Hibernians
0 : 2
Valletta
28 Aug
Hibernians
1 : 1
Zabbar
21 Aug
Marsaxlokk
1 : 0
Hibernians
16 Aug
Sliema
0 : 2
Hibernians
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Marsaxlokk 6 3 2 1 11:9 11
2 Valletta 5 3 1 1 12:6 10
3 Floriana 5 3 1 1 12:7 10
4 Birkirkara 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
5 Hamrun 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
6 Mosta FC 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
7 Sliema 5 3 0 2 7:7 9
8 Balzan FC 5 2 2 1 9:6 8
9 Hibernians 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
10 Zabbar 6 1 2 3 5:9 5
11 Gzira 5 0 1 4 2:13 1
12 Birzebbuga 5 0 0 5 1:11 0
Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League (First stage - Play Out)