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Hamrun vs Mosta FC

Malta Malta

Premier League
Mon, Aug 17, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hamrun host Mosta FC in the Premier League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Recent numbers: Hamrun at 1.88 goals for, 1.38 against; Mosta FC at 1.63 for, 1.75 against. Past meetings favor Mosta FC slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 15, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.50, favoring Hamrun. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Hamrun
6%
Draws
4%
Mosta FC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hamrun

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hamrun come out ahead of Mosta FC on wins alone.
  • Hamrun are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 16%
Mosta FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamrun Mosta FC
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 16 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
1:2
Dec 17, 2024 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamrun 84 / 100
Mosta FC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamrun Mosta FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamrun scored in 82% of their last 33 games.

Mosta FC has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Hamrun remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hamrun VS Mosta FC
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamrun

(Home)
16 Jul
Hamrun
1 : 2
NSI Runavik
09 Jul
NSI Runavik
1 : 1
Hamrun
15 May
Valletta
0 : 2
Hamrun
09 May
Marsaxlokk
2 : 1
Hamrun
02 May
Valletta
2 : 1
Hamrun
Page 1 of 7

Mosta FC

(Away)
24 Jul
Gzira
1 : 1
Mosta FC
17 Jul
Mosta FC
0 : 4
Birzebbuga
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1
Mosta FC
30 Apr
Birkirkara
1 : 1
Mosta FC
24 Apr
Hibernians
2 : 0
Mosta FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Birkirkara00000:00
2Marsaxlokk00000:00
3Hibernians00000:00
4Valletta00000:00
5Floriana00000:00
6Sliema00000:00
7Hamrun00000:00
8Balzan FC00000:00
9Mosta FC00000:00
10Birzebbuga00000:00
11Gzira00000:00
12Zabbar00000:00
Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League (First stage - Play Out)