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Hamrun vs Mosta FC

Malta Malta

Premier League Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Thiaguinho
19'
Sub
Cachia S. In: Ugwu E.
Out: Cachia S.
46'
Sub
Ipalibo J. In: Polito V.
Out: Ipalibo J.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Hamrun and Mosta FC finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mosta FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Hamrun
20%
Draws
40%
Mosta FC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Hamrun come out ahead of Mosta FC on wins alone.
  • Hamrun are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Hamrun Clean Sheet 20%
Mosta FC Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hamrun Mosta FC
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 14 10
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.6 1.19
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
0:2
Mar 15, 2026 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
2:0
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Mosta FC vs Hamrun
0:2
Mar 9, 2025 Premier League
Hamrun vs Mosta FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hamrun Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Mosta FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiaguinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Giancarlo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hamrun 49 / 100
Mosta FC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hamrun Mosta FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hamrun Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hamrun scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Mosta FC has conceded goals in 78% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Hamrun remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Hamrun VS Mosta FC
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hamrun

(Home)
18 Sept
Hamrun
4 : 1
Marsaxlokk
11 Sept
Birzebbuga
0 : 2
Hamrun
06 Sept
Zabbar
1 : 2
Hamrun
29 Aug
Hamrun
1 : 1
Floriana
22 Aug
Birkirkara
1 : 0
Hamrun
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Mosta FC

(Away)
13 Sept
Mosta FC
1 : 3
Sliema
05 Sept
Marsaxlokk
1 : 1
Mosta FC
30 Aug
Mosta FC
1 : 0
Birkirkara
23 Aug
Mosta FC
2 : 1
Balzan FC
17 Aug
Hamrun
0 : 2
Mosta FC
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Floriana 6 4 1 1 16:7 13
2 Valletta 6 4 1 1 15:6 13
3 Marsaxlokk 6 3 2 1 11:9 11
4 Birkirkara 6 3 1 2 9:4 10
5 Hamrun 6 3 1 2 9:6 10
6 Mosta FC 5 3 1 1 7:5 10
7 Sliema 6 3 1 2 7:7 10
8 Balzan FC 6 2 3 1 9:6 9
9 Zabbar 6 1 2 3 5:9 5
10 Hibernians 6 1 2 3 4:9 5
11 Gzira 5 0 1 4 2:13 1
12 Birzebbuga 6 0 0 6 1:14 0
Promotion - Premier League (First stage - Top 6)
Relegation - Premier League (First stage - Play Out)