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HAPK vs Vaajakoski

Finland Finland

Kakkonen Group A 2025 Haminan urheilukentta, Hamina
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Silvo E.
37'
Berardinelli J.
40'
Seilonen L.

AI Match Summary

The Kakkonen Group A 2025 game between HAPK and Vaajakoski finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vaajakoski.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
HAPK
15%
Draws
59%
Vaajakoski
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vaajakoski

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Vaajakoski come out ahead of HAPK on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Vaajakoski taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).
  • Vaajakoski have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
HAPK Clean Sheet 10%
Vaajakoski Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HAPK Vaajakoski
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 5 13
Draws 3 3
Losses 22 13
Goals Scored 1 1.63
Goals Conceded 6 2.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 6.00 2.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
Vaajakoski vs HAPK
4:2
Sep 13, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
HAPK vs Vaajakoski
0:3
Jul 26, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
HAPK vs Vaajakoski
1:4
May 24, 2025 Kakkonen Group A
Vaajakoski vs HAPK
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HAPK Compare

Top Goalscorer Silvo E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Vaajakoski Compare

Top Goalscorer Berardinelli J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Yahagi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HAPK 10 / 100
Vaajakoski 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HAPK Vaajakoski

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FCV Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vaajakoski let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

HAPK found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

HAPK went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

HAPK VS Vaajakoski
1 Goals Scored 1.63
6 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 75%
100% Over 2.5 63%
100% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

HAPK

(Home)
14 Apr
HAPK
1 : 6
SJK
04 Oct
HAPK
3 : 2
JPS Jyvaskyla
27 Sept
Vaajakoski
4 : 2
HAPK
21 Sept
Lahden Reipas
6 : 0
HAPK
13 Sept
HAPK
0 : 3
Vaajakoski
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Vaajakoski

(Away)
01 Aug
JBK
4 : 0
Vaajakoski
26 Jul
Narpes Kraft
2 : 3
Vaajakoski
17 Jul
Vaajakoski
0 : 1
Huima / Urho
12 Jul
Vaajakoski
5 : 2
Jaro 2
04 Jul
JS Hercules
2 : 2
Vaajakoski
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Honka 18 16 1 1 79:13 49
2 VJS 18 13 3 2 54:18 42
3 PuiU Helsinki 18 10 1 7 32:26 31
4 PEPO 18 9 2 7 31:29 29
5 MyPa 18 8 3 7 47:39 27
6 GrIFK 18 7 4 7 37:36 25
7 Lahden Reipas 18 7 2 9 41:43 23
8 Vaajakoski 18 7 1 10 37:41 22
9 HAPK 18 1 3 14 13:67 6
10 JPS Jyvaskyla 18 1 2 15 18:77 5
Promotion - Kakkonen Group A 2025 (Winners stage)
Relegation - Kakkonen Group A 2025 (Losers stage)