Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Kiryat Yam

Israel Israel

State Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm play Kiryat Yam in the State Cup. Hapoel Umm al-Fahm are favorites here. Recently, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Kiryat Yam averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. In past meetings, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm won 1, Kiryat Yam won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 28, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Hapoel Umm al-Fahm and 1.00 for Kiryat Yam. This points to a Hapoel Umm al-Fahm double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
25%
Draws
15%
Kiryat Yam
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Hapoel Umm al-Fahm picked up more points recently compared to Kiryat Yam.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Over 3.5 Goals 31%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Clean Sheet 23%
Kiryat Yam Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Kiryat Yam
Matches Played 20 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 13
Goals Scored 1.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 28, 2025 State Cup
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Kiryat Yam
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Compare

Top Goalscorer Bashir B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Kiryat Yam Compare

Top Goalscorer Livnat N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 59 / 100
Kiryat Yam 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Kiryat Yam

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Win (1)
Secondary Pick Hapoel Umm al-Fahm & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.2%
2.22
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attacking → ← attacking Kiryat Yam

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scored in 70% of their last 20 games.

Kiryat Yam let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Kiryat Yam lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 35
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13