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Harborough vs Barwell

England England

Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Stephens B.
43' Event
Hickey B.
84' Event
O’Sullivan R.

AI Match Summary

Harborough in this Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Harborough.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Harborough
15%
Draws
32%
Barwell
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Harborough

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Harborough lately — more wins on the board than Barwell.
  • Harborough are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.8%
Harborough Clean Sheet 68%
Barwell Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harborough Barwell
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 5
Draws 10 5
Losses 2 20
Goals Scored 2.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.03 2.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.90 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 28, 2026 Southern League Premier Central
Harborough vs Barwell
3:0
Nov 29, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Harborough
1:1
Apr 21, 2025 Southern League Premier Central
Harborough vs Barwell
1:0
Dec 26, 2024 Southern League Premier Central
Barwell vs Harborough
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harborough Compare

Top Goalscorer Stephens B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hickey B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.95

Barwell Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harborough 86 / 100
Barwell 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harborough Barwell

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Harborough Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Harborough's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Barwell conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Harborough stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Harborough VS Barwell
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.67
75% Over 1.5 83%
50% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Harborough

(Home)
31 Aug
Harborough
2 : 1
Marine
28 Aug
Hednesford
2 : 1
Harborough
22 Aug
Harborough
4 : 2
Darlington FC
18 Aug
Oxford City
1 : 1
Harborough
15 Aug
Harborough
1 : 0
Morecambe
Page 1 of 6

Barwell

(Away)
29 Aug
Loughborough Students
1 : 0
Barwell
04 Jul
Quorn
1 : 2
Barwell
25 Apr
Barwell
3 : 1
Stortford
18 Apr
Barwell
0 : 3
Bury Town
11 Apr
Needham Market
2 : 1
Barwell
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Harborough 42 28 11 3 81:33 95
2 Spalding United 42 25 10 7 103:54 85
3 Real Bedford 42 24 9 9 84:47 81
4 Kettering 42 21 9 12 74:52 72
5 Halesowen 42 20 10 12 85:60 70
6 Needham Market 42 20 10 12 64:53 70
7 Redditch 42 21 7 14 67:58 70
8 Quorn 42 19 8 15 78:71 65
9 Worcester 42 17 12 13 64:44 63
10 Leiston 42 16 15 11 65:58 63
11 Stratford 42 17 10 15 61:54 61
12 Banbury 42 17 9 16 51:56 60
13 Bury Town 42 15 13 14 61:53 58
14 Alvechurch 42 14 8 20 49:55 50
15 Stourbridge 42 12 14 16 58:68 50
16 Stortford 42 13 10 19 53:67 49
17 Stamford 42 13 8 21 41:64 47
18 Bromsgrove 42 12 8 22 52:73 44
19 St Ives Town 42 9 12 21 50:73 39
20 Barwell 42 9 8 25 52:85 35
21 Royston Town 42 5 10 27 35:82 25
22 Sudbury 42 6 7 29 47:115 25
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - Southern League Premier Central 2025/2026 (Play Offs)