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Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Harju JK Laagri play Paide Linnameeskond in the Meistriliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Harju JK Laagri averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Paide Linnameeskond averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Harju JK Laagri won 1, Paide Linnameeskond won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 17, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Harju JK Laagri and 1.56 for Paide Linnameeskond. This points to a Paide Linnameeskond double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Harju JK Laagri
25%
Draws
41%
Paide Linnameeskond
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Paide Linnameeskond

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Harju JK Laagri picked up more points recently compared to Paide Linnameeskond.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 61%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 15%
Paide Linnameeskond Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Paide Linnameeskond
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 4 8
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.6 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 17, 2026 Meistriliiga
Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri
1:0
Apr 22, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond
2:2
Sep 20, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Paide Linnameeskond
3:0
Aug 3, 2025 Meistriliiga
Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri
2:0
May 17, 2025 Meistriliiga
Paide Linnameeskond vs Harju JK Laagri
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Eerme K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Paide Linnameeskond Compare

Top Goalscorer Miller M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 34 / 100
Paide Linnameeskond 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paide Linnameeskond or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.82
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Harju JK Laagri attacking → ← attacking Paide Linnameeskond

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Harju JK Laagri scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Paide Linnameeskond let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Harju JK Laagri went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Paide Linnameeskond lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 50
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora18120638:1936
3Kalju19104533:1634
4Paide Linnameeskond1995530:2332
5Tammeka Tartu1782720:2126
6Parnu JK Vaprus1872922:3423
7Harju JK Laagri19711125:3222
8Nomme Utd18611134:4319
9Kuressaare18521117:3017
10Narva19311512:4610