Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Laagri kunstmurustaadion, Laagri
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Binate A.
20' Event
Kriis K.
21'
Villota M.

AI Match Summary

The Meistriliiga game between Harju JK Laagri and Parnu JK Vaprus finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Parnu JK Vaprus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Harju JK Laagri
6%
Draws
4%
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Harju JK Laagri

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Harju JK Laagri carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Harju JK Laagri taking it.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Harju JK Laagri Clean Sheet 15%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Harju JK Laagri Parnu JK Vaprus
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 4 3
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Apr 4, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
0:2
Sep 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Harju JK Laagri
2:2
Apr 26, 2025 Meistriliiga
Harju JK Laagri vs Parnu JK Vaprus
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Harju JK Laagri Compare

Top Goalscorer Kriis K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Poder J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Limberg M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Harju JK Laagri 84 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Harju JK Laagri Parnu JK Vaprus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Harju JK Laagri scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Parnu JK Vaprus has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Harju JK Laagri has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Harju JK Laagri VS Parnu JK Vaprus
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Harju JK Laagri

(Home)
23 Jul
Harju JK Laagri
8 : 0
Rae Spordikool
19 Jul
Harju JK Laagri
5 : 2
Paide Linnameeskond
10 Jul
Harju JK Laagri
3 : 0
Narva
05 Jul
Tammeka Tartu
2 : 1
Harju JK Laagri
20 Jun
Harju JK Laagri
1 : 3
Nomme Utd
Page 1 of 6

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Away)
21 Jul
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1 : 4
Parnu JK Vaprus
18 Jul
Narva
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
11 Jul
Parnu JK Vaprus
5 : 1
Tammeka Tartu
04 Jul
Paide Linnameeskond
3 : 1
Parnu JK Vaprus
26 Jun
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Kuressaare
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora19120739:2136
3Kalju20105533:1635
4Paide Linnameeskond2095632:2832
5Parnu JK Vaprus20821028:3826
6Tammeka Tartu1882821:2626
7Nomme Utd20811139:4625
8Harju JK Laagri20811130:3425
9Kuressaare20531219:3318
10Narva20411515:4713
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)