Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hatayspor vs Manisa FK

Turkey Turkey

1. Lig Mersin Stadyumu
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hatayspor play Manisa FK in the 1. Lig. Manisa FK are favorites here. Recently, Hatayspor averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.73 conceded. Manisa FK averaged 1.47 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, Hatayspor won 0, Manisa FK won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 17, 2026 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Hatayspor and 1.81 for Manisa FK. This points to a Manisa FK double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
Hatayspor
17%
Draws
70%
Manisa FK
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Manisa FK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Hatayspor picked up more points recently compared to Manisa FK.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%
Hatayspor Clean Sheet 11%
Manisa FK Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hatayspor Manisa FK
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 14
Draws 5 5
Losses 23 11
Goals Scored 0.8 1.47
Goals Conceded 2.73 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 17, 2026 1. Lig
Hatayspor vs Manisa FK
2:2
Aug 17, 2025 1. Lig
Manisa FK vs Hatayspor
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hatayspor Compare

Top Goalscorer Aksoy E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Manisa FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Diony L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Benrahou Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hatayspor 14 / 100
Manisa FK 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hatayspor Manisa FK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Manisa FK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Manisa FK & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +160%
20.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Hatayspor attacking → ← attacking Manisa FK

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hatayspor scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Manisa FK let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Hatayspor went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Manisa FK lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

11 Points in last 5 47
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Erzurumspor FK382312382:2781
2Amedspor382111681:4274
3Erokspor382111681:3574
4Corum FK38218963:3971
5Bodrumspor3818101071:3964
6Pendikspor381615758:3363
7Keciorengucu3816121073:4360
8Bandirmaspor3816121047:3460
9Manisa FK381671557:5655
10Sivasspor3814111347:4353
11Istanbulspor AS3813131257:5552
12Sariyer381571644:4452
13Igdir FK3813111452:5450
14Vanspor FK3813101552:4749
15Boluspor381461861:5748
16Umraniyespor381371847:5146
17Serik Spor381162144:7539
18Sakaryaspor388102045:7234
19Hatayspor38282833:10214
20Adanademirspor38133422:169-54