Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Havadar SC vs Naft Gachsaran

Iran Iran

Azadegan League Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium
Sat, Jul 11, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Havadar SC play Naft Gachsaran in the Azadegan League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Havadar SC averaged 0.97 goals scored and 0.71 conceded. Naft Gachsaran averaged 0.74 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Havadar SC won 0, Naft Gachsaran won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jan 4, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Havadar SC and 0.44 for Naft Gachsaran. This points to a Havadar SC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Havadar SC
35%
Draws
26%
Naft Gachsaran
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Havadar SC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Havadar SC picked up more points recently compared to Naft Gachsaran.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 0.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 27%
Over 3.5 Goals 16%
Over 4.5 Goals 8%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Havadar SC Clean Sheet 31%
Naft Gachsaran Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 51%
Second Half Goal 54%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Havadar SC Naft Gachsaran
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 7
Draws 15 11
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 0.97 0.74
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 4, 2026 Azadegan League
Naft Gachsaran vs Havadar SC
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Havadar SC 41 / 100
Naft Gachsaran 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Havadar SC Naft Gachsaran

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Havadar SC or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +28.5%
4.76
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Havadar SC attacking → ← attacking Naft Gachsaran

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Havadar SC scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Naft Gachsaran let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Havadar SC went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Naft Gachsaran lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 32
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mazandaran32199446:1566
2Mes Shahr Babak321810439:1464
3Pars Janoobi Jam321412638:2154
4Sanat Naft321412634:2154
5Saipa321411727:1853
6Havadar SC321116530:1849
7Fard321015724:1445
8Naft Bandar Abbas32917623:1844
9Mes Kerman32915820:1742
10Ario Eslamshahr32815916:1639
11Besat Kermanshah329111224:2738
12Niroye Zamini328111327:2835
13Naft Gachsaran327131223:3734
14Kara Gostar Shabestar32891516:3433
15Shenavarsazi Qeshm327101519:3531
16Shahrdari Noshahr325141317:2729
17Navad Urmia324121616:4324
18Damash Gilan322121816:5218