Sport Picks

Stadium Background

HBC vs Watergraafsmeer - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Netherlands Netherlands

Derde Divisie 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Dijkstra A.
37' Event
Owusu-Ansah R.
61' Event
Tervoort D.

AI Match Summary

HBC in this Derde Divisie 2023/2024 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
HBC
20%
Draws
51%
Watergraafsmeer
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Watergraafsmeer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Watergraafsmeer lately — more wins on the board than HBC.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Watergraafsmeer arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor HBC, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
HBC Clean Sheet 10%
Watergraafsmeer Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric HBC Watergraafsmeer
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 3 8
Draws 7 4
Losses 22 18
Goals Scored 1.28 1.37
Goals Conceded 2.53 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 8, 2024 Derde Divisie
Watergraafsmeer vs HBC
0:2
Jun 5, 2024 Derde Divisie
HBC vs Watergraafsmeer
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

HBC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dijkstra A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tervoort D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Watergraafsmeer Compare

Top Goalscorer Owusu-Ansah R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

HBC 34 / 100
Watergraafsmeer 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
HBC Watergraafsmeer

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Watergraafsmeer Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Watergraafsmeer let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: HBC scored in 66% of their last 32 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Solid form: HBC remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

HBC VS Watergraafsmeer
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

HBC

(Home)
07 Jun
HVV Hollandia
2 : 0
HBC
03 Jun
HBC
0 : 1
HVV Hollandia
30 May
Flevo Boys
1 : 1
HBC
27 May
HBC
3 : 1
Flevo Boys
24 May
HBC
0 : 2
Huizen
Page 1 of 7

Watergraafsmeer

(Away)
23 Sept
Watergraafsmeer
5 : 4
TEC
02 Sept
Dongen
2 : 4
Watergraafsmeer
30 May
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 3
NEO
27 May
NEO
3 : 0
Watergraafsmeer
07 Jun
Watergraafsmeer
2 : 2
Excelsior 31
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
HBC 3
VV Scherpenzeel 2
Watergraafsmeer 5
Staphorst 4
Rohda Raalte 4
VV Hoogeveen 3
AZSV 1
Huizen 2
Smitshoek 3
AWC 1
Westlandia 0
Achilles Veen 5
Dongen 2
GVV Unitas 3
RKSV Halsteren 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 5
Final
HBC 4
Watergraafsmeer 1
Rohda Raalte 0
Huizen 1
Smitshoek 2
Achilles Veen 0
GVV Unitas 2
FC 's-Gravenzande 3