Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heidenheim vs Mainz

Germany Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Tietz P.
43' Event
Amiri N.
Assist: Tietz P.
46'
Sub
Busch M. In: Traore O. H.
Out: Busch M.

AI Match Summary

Mainz in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Heidenheim
11%
Draws
80%
Mainz
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Mainz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Mainz have won more games recently than Heidenheim.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Mainz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Heidenheim Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heidenheim Mainz
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 14 6
Goals Scored 3.88 4.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 3.88 4.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
0:2
Jan 13, 2026 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Heidenheim
2:1
Feb 16, 2025 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
0:2
Sep 28, 2024 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Heidenheim
0:2
May 5, 2024 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heidenheim Compare

Avg xG / game 2.98
Avg xA / game 1.94

Mainz Compare

Top Goalscorer Tietz P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amiri N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 4.09
Avg xA / game 2.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heidenheim 10 / 100
Mainz 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heidenheim Mainz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heidenheim's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Mainz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Solid form: Heidenheim remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heidenheim VS Mainz
3.88 Goals Scored 4.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Heidenheim

(Home)
25 Jul
Heidenheim
1 : 3
Hamburger
22 Jul
Bologna
1 : 1
Heidenheim
15 Jul
Nordlingen
0 : 9
Heidenheim
11 Jul
TSV Langenau
0 : 12
Heidenheim
10 Jul
Heidenheim
0 : 1
Lugano
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Mainz

(Away)
25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0
Holstein Kiel
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1
Kaiserslautern
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10
Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11
Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2
Mainz
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bayern Munich342851122:3689
2Dortmund34227570:3473
3RB Leipzig34205966:4765
4VfB Stuttgart34188871:4962
5Hoffenheim34187965:5261
6Bayer Leverkusen34178968:4759
7Freiburg341381351:5747
8Eintracht Frankfurt3411111261:6544
9Augsburg341271545:6143
10Mainz3410101444:5340
11Union Berlin341091544:5839
12B. Monchengladbach349111442:5338
13Hamburger349111440:5438
141. FC Koln347111649:6332
15Werder Bremen34881837:6032
16Wolfsburg34781945:6929
17Heidenheim34682041:7226
18St. Pauli34682029:6026
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)