Sport Picks
Match Events
7'
7'
Tietz P.
43'
43'
Amiri N.
Assist: Tietz P.
46'
46'
Sub
Busch M. In: Traore O. H.
Out: Busch M.
AI Match Summary
Mainz in this Bundesliga 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Mainz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Mainz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mainz have won more games recently than Heidenheim.
- 45% — that's where the model lands on Mainz taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Heidenheim Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Heidenheim | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 16 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 13 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2.38 | 2.62 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.93 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 3.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 16, 2026 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
0:2
Jan 13, 2026 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Heidenheim
2:1
Feb 16, 2025 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
0:2
Sep 28, 2024 Bundesliga
Mainz vs Heidenheim
0:2
May 5, 2024 Bundesliga
Heidenheim vs Mainz
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Heidenheim Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Mainz Compare
Top Goalscorer Tietz P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Amiri N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.85
Avg xA / game 1.74
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Heidenheim 10 / 100
Mainz 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Heidenheim Mainz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mainz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Heidenheim's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Heidenheim went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Mainz conceded in 55% of 29 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Heidenheim VS Mainz
2.5 Goals Scored 3.38
2.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
88% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Heidenheim
(Home) 13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
06 Sept
Greuther Furth
0 : 1 Heidenheim
29 Aug
Heidenheim
5 : 3 Dresden
23 Aug
Jeddeloh
5 : 2 Heidenheim
18 Aug
Heidenheim
2 : 4 Bayern Munich
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13 Sept
Heidenheim
1 : 0 Holstein Kiel
29 Aug
Heidenheim
5 : 3 Dresden
18 Aug
Heidenheim
2 : 4 Bayern Munich
08 Aug
Heidenheim
4 : 3 VfL Osnabruck
01 Aug
Heidenheim
4 : 1 Ingolstadt
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Mainz
(Away) 12 Sept
Mainz
1 : 3 Eintracht Frankfurt
06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5 Mainz
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0 Paderborn
23 Aug
Krieschow
0 : 9 Mainz
15 Aug
Mainz
2 : 1 Bournemouth
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06 Sept
Hamburger
0 : 5 Mainz
23 Aug
Krieschow
0 : 9 Mainz
01 Aug
Udinese
3 : 3 Mainz
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10 Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11 Mainz
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 122:36 | 89 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 70:34 | 73 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66:47 | 65 |
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71:49 | 62 |
| 5 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65:52 | 61 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 68:47 | 59 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51:57 | 47 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 61:65 | 44 |
| 9 | Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 45:61 | 43 |
| 10 | Mainz | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44:53 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44:58 | 39 |
| 12 | B. Monchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42:53 | 38 |
| 13 | Hamburger | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:54 | 38 |
| 14 | 1. FC Koln | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 49:63 | 32 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37:60 | 32 |
| 16 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 45:69 | 29 |
| 17 | Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 41:72 | 26 |
| 18 | St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 29:60 | 26 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga (Main)
