Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heraclea vs Acerrana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Musy Hernandez M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Heraclea and Acerrana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heraclea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Heraclea
15%
Draws
0%
Acerrana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Heraclea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Heraclea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Heraclea's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 15%
Acerrana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Acerrana
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 3
Draws 8 3
Losses 14 24
Goals Scored 0.93 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.17 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Acerrana
1:0
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Acerrana vs Heraclea
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Musy Hernandez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Acerrana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 84 / 100
Acerrana 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Acerrana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heraclea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Acerrana has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Acerrana lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Acerrana
1 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Acerrana

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Barletta
3 : 0
Acerrana
19 Apr
Acerrana
1 : 3
Pompei
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1
Acerrana
02 Apr
Acerrana
2 : 5
Sarnese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)