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Heraclea vs Ferrandina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Sepe A.
48' Event
Mazzaroppi S.
88' Event
Mokulu B.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Heraclea and Ferrandina finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heraclea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Heraclea
20%
Draws
40%
Ferrandina
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Heraclea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Heraclea are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 20%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Ferrandina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.93 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Ferrandina
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs Heraclea
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzaroppi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mokulu B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Ferrandina Compare

Top Goalscorer Sepe A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 58 / 100
Ferrandina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Ferrandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heraclea Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Ferrandina let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: Ferrandina has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Ferrandina
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Ferrandina

(Away)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)