Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Heraclea vs Ferrandina

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Sepe A.
48' Event
Mazzaroppi S.
88' Event
Mokulu B.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Heraclea and Ferrandina finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Heraclea.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Heraclea
22%
Draws
18%
Ferrandina
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Heraclea

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Heraclea carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Heraclea are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 20%
Ferrandina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Ferrandina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.88 0.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Ferrandina
2:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Ferrandina vs Heraclea
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazzaroppi S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mokulu B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ferrandina Compare

Top Goalscorer Sepe A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 58 / 100
Ferrandina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Ferrandina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Ferrandina let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Away concern: Ferrandina has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Ferrandina
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
Page 1 of 6

Ferrandina

(Away)
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Ferrandina
1 : 0
A.C.D. Nardo
19 Apr
SS Nola 1925
0 : 0
Ferrandina
12 Apr
Ferrandina
0 : 5
Gravina
02 Apr
Citta di Fasano
2 : 0
Ferrandina
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)