Sport Picks
Heraclea vs Manfredonia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 
Match Events
70'
70'
Agnelli G.
78'
78'
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 game between Heraclea and Manfredonia finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
30%
51%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Manfredonia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Manfredonia come out ahead of Heraclea on wins alone.
- Model gives Manfredonia a 51% chance of winning this.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 14.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 20%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Heraclea | Manfredonia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Manfredonia
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Heraclea
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Heraclea Compare
Top Goalscorer Agnelli G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.88
Avg xA / game 0.57
Manfredonia Compare
Avg xG / game 1.12
Avg xA / game 0.68
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Heraclea 16 / 100
Manfredonia 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Heraclea Manfredonia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Manfredonia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Manfredonia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Heraclea stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Heraclea VS Manfredonia
1.29 Goals Scored 0.75
1.71 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Heraclea
(Home) 10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1 Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1 Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1 Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3 Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1 Heraclea
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1 Ferrandina
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3 Barletta
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1 Manfredonia
22 Mar
Heraclea
1 : 1 Sarnese
01 Mar
Heraclea
1 : 3 Virtus Francavilla
Page 1 of 3
Manfredonia
(Away) 04 Oct
Manfredonia
1 : 0 Bisceglie
27 Sept
Real Forio 2014
1 : 2 Manfredonia
20 Sept
Manfredonia
3 : 0 Ebolitana
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1 Manfredonia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2 Nocerina
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Real Forio 2014
1 : 2 Manfredonia
16 Sept
Fidelis Andria
1 : 1 Manfredonia
06 Sept
San Felice Gladiator
2 : 1 Manfredonia
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2 Manfredonia
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0 Manfredonia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
