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Heraclea vs Manfredonia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
Agnelli G.
78' Event
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group H game between Heraclea and Manfredonia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Heraclea
44%
Draws
20%
Manfredonia
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Manfredonia come out ahead of Heraclea on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Heraclea Clean Sheet 19%
Manfredonia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heraclea Manfredonia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 0.88 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Heraclea vs Manfredonia
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Manfredonia vs Heraclea
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heraclea Compare

Top Goalscorer Agnelli G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Manfredonia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heraclea 36 / 100
Manfredonia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heraclea Manfredonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Heraclea scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Manfredonia conceded in 59% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: Heraclea stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Heraclea VS Manfredonia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Heraclea

(Home)
10 May
SS Nola 1925
1 : 1
Heraclea
03 May
Heraclea
2 : 1
Ferrandina
26 Apr
Martina Calcio
2 : 1
Heraclea
19 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 3
Barletta
12 Apr
Pompei
2 : 1
Heraclea
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Manfredonia

(Away)
03 May
Acerrana
1 : 2
Manfredonia
26 Apr
Manfredonia
0 : 0
Fidelis Andria
19 Apr
A.C.D. Nardo
2 : 0
Manfredonia
12 Apr
Manfredonia
1 : 0
SS Nola 1925
02 Apr
Heraclea
1 : 1
Manfredonia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Barletta342010454:2070
2Martina Calcio34188847:3062
3Citta di Fasano34188851:3562
4Paganese341771036:3258
5A.C.D. Nardo341413740:2755
6Gravina341671150:4055
7Afragolese3413101145:4649
8Fidelis Andria341391235:2848
9Virtus Francavilla3412121045:4048
10Real Normanna3410131127:2643
11Francavilla3411101339:3843
12Manfredonia3411101334:3943
13Sarnese349141151:4941
14SS Nola 1925341181542:5041
15Heraclea341081631:3938
16Pompei34971826:3834
17Ferrandina34791821:4330
18Acerrana34352620:7414
Promotion - Serie D - Group H (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H (Play Out)