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Heracles vs Excelsior

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Yegoian I.
3' Event
de Regt G.
22' Event
Borac M.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Heracles and Excelsior finished 3-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Excelsior.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Heracles
15%
Draws
27%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Heracles

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Excelsior carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Heracles taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Heracles Clean Sheet 10%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heracles Excelsior
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 2 8
Losses 17 9
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
3:5
Mar 20, 2026 Eredivisie
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Heracles
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:2
Jul 26, 2024 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heracles Compare

Top Goalscorer Borac M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kulenovic L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Yegoian I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader de Regt G.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heracles 83 / 100
Excelsior 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heracles Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Heracles Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Excelsior conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Heracles stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Heracles scored in 61% of their last 28 games.

Scoring Trends

Heracles VS Excelsior
3.25 Goals Scored 3.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Heracles

(Home)
11 Sept
Heracles
3 : 2
Jong AZ Alkmaar
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0
De Graafschap
30 Aug
Eindhoven FC
1 : 3
Heracles
24 Aug
Jong Utrecht
1 : 6
Heracles
14 Aug
Heracles
3 : 2
Den Bosch
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Excelsior

(Away)
13 Sept
Excelsior
1 : 2
Utrecht
08 Sept
Nijmegen
2 : 2
Excelsior
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
29 Aug
Excelsior
2 : 1
Sparta Rotterdam
15 Aug
Excelsior
1 : 2
PSV
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