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Heracles vs Excelsior

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Yegoian I.
3' Event
de Regt G.
22' Event
Borac M.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Heracles and Excelsior finished 3-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Excelsior.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Heracles
6%
Draws
90%
Excelsior
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Excelsior carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Excelsior taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Heracles Clean Sheet 10%
Excelsior Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Heracles Excelsior
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 4 8
Losses 18 10
Goals Scored 0.75 2.38
Goals Conceded 2 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
3:5
Mar 20, 2026 Eredivisie
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:1
Nov 8, 2025 Eredivisie
Excelsior vs Heracles
1:2
Jul 25, 2025 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:2
Jul 26, 2024 Club Friendly
Heracles vs Excelsior
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Heracles Compare

Top Goalscorer Borac M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kulenovic L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Yegoian I.
2 Goals
Assists Leader de Regt G.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Heracles 10 / 100
Excelsior 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Heracles Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick EXC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Heracles's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Excelsior's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Heracles went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Heracles VS Excelsior
0.75 Goals Scored 2.38
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Heracles

(Home)
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5
Excelsior
17 Jul
Heracles
2 : 0
FC Emmen
08 Jul
Heracles
2 : 1
Groningen
17 May
Heracles
1 : 2
Groningen
10 May
Telstar
3 : 0
Heracles
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Excelsior

(Away)
24 Jul
Heracles
3 : 5
Excelsior
18 Jul
NAC Breda
1 : 3
Excelsior
11 Jul
Dordrecht
0 : 2
Excelsior
04 Jul
Excelsior
3 : 2
Cambuur
17 May
Sparta Rotterdam
2 : 3
Excelsior
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