Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Brown

AI Match Summary

Blumenau in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Blumenau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Hercilio Luz
20%
Draws
23%
Blumenau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Hercilio Luz have won more games recently than Blumenau.
  • Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Hercilio Luz here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Blumenau
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 16 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.72 1.66
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
May 13, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
0:1
Oct 27, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:4
Sep 16, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Blumenau Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 59 / 100
Blumenau 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Blumenau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Hercilio Luz scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Blumenau conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Hercilio Luz stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Blumenau
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3
Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2
CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
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Blumenau

(Away)
19 Sept
Blumenau
0 : 1
CA Metropolitano
15 Sept
Barra FC (Santa Catarina)
2 : 2
Blumenau
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
29 Aug
Blumenau
0 : 1
Santa Catarina
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 18 13 3 2 35:10 42
2 CA Metropolitano 18 12 2 4 36:18 38
3 Caravaggio 18 10 5 3 47:20 35
4 Blumenau 18 9 4 5 35:15 31
5 Tubarao 18 6 5 7 23:21 23
6 Guarani de Palhoca 18 6 5 7 24:24 23
7 Nacao 18 5 6 7 19:26 21
8 Fluminense-SC 18 6 3 9 16:25 21
9 Gremio Juventus 18 5 2 11 17:26 17
10 Jaragua-SC 18 0 1 17 6:73 1
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)