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Stadium Background

Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Brown

AI Match Summary

Blumenau in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Blumenau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Hercilio Luz
17%
Draws
13%
Blumenau
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Blumenau have won more games recently than Hercilio Luz.
  • Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Hercilio Luz here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
Blumenau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Blumenau
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 14
Draws 6 6
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 2 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Catarinense 2
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
May 13, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
0:1
Oct 27, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Blumenau vs Hercilio Luz
0:4
Sep 16, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Blumenau
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Hercilio Luz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Blumenau Compare

Top Goalscorer Brown
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 77 / 100
Blumenau 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Blumenau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Hercilio Luz has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Hercilio Luz found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Blumenau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Blumenau
2 Goals Scored 1.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz16122233:938
2CA Metropolitano16102431:1832
3Caravaggio1694344:1931
4Blumenau1684432:1328
5Tubarao1665522:1723
6Fluminense-SC1653814:2118
7Nacao1646616:2418
8Gremio Juventus1652916:2117
9Guarani de Palhoca1645715:2417
10Jaragua-SC1601156:631