Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina 2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Hercilio Luz in this Copa Santa Catarina 2018 tie, finishing 3-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Hercilio Luz
6%
Draws
4%
Fluminense-SC
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Hercilio Luz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Hercilio Luz lately — more wins on the board than Fluminense-SC.
  • Hercilio Luz are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Hercilio Luz have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Hercilio Luz, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Hercilio Luz here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 20%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Hercilio Luz Fluminense-SC
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 13 11
Draws 7 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.25 1
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Catarinense 2
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
4:2
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
1:0
Oct 20, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Hercilio Luz
0:2
Sep 26, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Fluminense-SC
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Hercilio Luz 85 / 100
Fluminense-SC 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Hercilio Luz Fluminense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HER Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense-SC has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Hercilio Luz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Hercilio Luz's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Hercilio Luz VS Fluminense-SC
2.25 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Hercilio Luz

(Home)
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0
Caravaggio
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Hercilio Luz
1 : 0
Gremio Juventus
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
04 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 6

Fluminense-SC

(Away)
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
04 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Blumenau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz1090126:527
2Figueirense1062220:1220
3Joinville1044219:1516
4Fluminense-SC1023510:169
5CA Metropolitano1022611:168
6Blumenau100376:283
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2018 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brusque1081120:625
2Tubarao1055013:420
3Marcilio Dias1053219:618
4Almirante Barroso1042413:1114
5Inter de Lages1021712:137
6Operario Mafra1000104:410
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2018 (Play Offs)